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Allsvenskan

Referee: V Wolf

Elfsborg

S S T T S

2–1

Full-time

Varberg

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Elfsborg Varberg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

2,3

3,7

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,0

2,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Allsvenskan · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 40%

67%

13%

Points per game

2,1

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

50%

58%

Both score Ø 40%

38%

42%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

2,0

0,8

Conceded

0,9

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

57% Possession 43%

25 Shots 4

5 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 0

5 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Elfsborg 2. · Varberg 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Malmo FF	24	16	4	4	+30	+6.9	52
2	Elfsborg	24	16	3	5	+26	+4.0	51
3	Hacken	25	16	2	7	+27	+6.3	50
4	Djurgarden	25	13	4	8	+6	+2.3	43
5	Hammarby	25	11	6	8	+2	+3.8	39
6	Norrkoping	25	11	5	9	+6	+4.8	38
7	Kalmar	25	10	6	9	-4	-4.4	36
8	Varnamo	25	11	2	12	+0	-0.1	35
9	Mjallby	25	10	4	11	-2	-4.7	34
10	Goteborg	25	7	9	9	-1	-0.9	30
11	Sirius	25	8	5	12	+1	+6.9	29
12	Halmstad	25	8	5	12	-17	-3.5	29
13	AIK	25	7	7	11	-4	-0.9	28
14	Brommapojkarna	24	8	3	13	-9	-1.7	27
15	Degerfors	25	7	2	16	-29	-9.4	23
16	Varberg	24	3	5	16	-32	-9.5	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hacken	13	12	0	1	+26	+3.9	36
2	Djurgarden	13	10	1	2	+12	+3.9	31
3	Malmo FF	12	8	3	1	+20	+2.1	27
4	Elfsborg	12	8	2	2	+16	+0.5	26
5	Hammarby	12	8	2	2	+8	+1.6	26
6	Kalmar	12	6	3	3	+0	-2.3	21
7	Norrkoping	13	6	2	5	+2	+0.2	20
8	Goteborg	12	5	3	4	+8	-0.0	18
9	AIK	12	4	5	3	+4	+3.4	17
10	Degerfors	13	5	2	6	-3	-2.4	17
11	Sirius	13	5	1	7	+5	+7.3	16
12	Halmstad	12	4	3	5	-6	-1.8	15
13	Brommapojkarna	12	4	2	6	-2	+0.4	14
14	Varnamo	12	4	1	7	-3	+1.0	13
15	Mjallby	13	3	3	7	-4	-4.8	12
16	Varberg	12	1	3	8	-18	-1.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Elfsborg	12	8	1	3	+10	+3.5	25
2	Malmo FF	12	8	1	3	+10	+4.8	25
3	Varnamo	13	7	1	5	+3	-1.1	22
4	Mjallby	12	7	1	4	+2	+0.1	22
5	Norrkoping	12	5	3	4	+4	+4.6	18
6	Kalmar	13	4	3	6	-4	-2.1	15
7	Hacken	12	4	2	6	+1	+2.5	14
8	Halmstad	13	4	2	7	-11	-1.8	14
9	Sirius	12	3	4	5	-4	-0.4	13
10	Hammarby	13	3	4	6	-6	+2.2	13
11	Brommapojkarna	12	4	1	7	-7	-2.1	13
12	Djurgarden	12	3	3	6	-6	-1.6	12
13	Goteborg	13	2	6	5	-9	-0.8	12
14	AIK	13	3	2	8	-8	-4.2	11
15	Varberg	12	2	2	8	-14	-7.8	8
16	Degerfors	12	2	0	10	-26	-7.0	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.