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La Liga

Referee: Javier Alberola Rojas

Las Palmas

U T T S T

2–1

Full-time

Celta

T S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Las Palmas Celta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

1,0

2,7

Scored

0,2

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 14%

14%

Points per game

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 15%

29%

Both score Ø 36%

14%

57%

Average goals

1,1

2,6

Scored

0,3

1,0

Conceded

0,9

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,70 xG 1,54

74% Possession 26%

16 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Las Palmas 18. · Celta 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	8	7	0	1	+10	+5.7	21
2	Barcelona	8	6	2	0	+11	+9.7	20
3	Girona	8	6	1	1	+7	+2.8	19
4	Ath Madrid	7	5	1	1	+11	+5.6	16
5	Sociedad	8	4	3	1	+6	+0.6	15
6	Ath Bilbao	8	4	2	2	+4	+5.3	14
7	Betis	8	3	3	2	-2	-2.2	12
8	Vallecano	8	3	3	2	-2	+1.1	12
9	Osasuna	8	3	1	4	-1	-1.6	10
10	Valencia	8	3	1	4	-1	-0.2	10
11	Getafe	8	2	3	3	-3	-2.3	9
12	Cadiz	8	2	3	3	-3	-4.6	9
13	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	-3	-2.7	8
14	Sevilla	7	2	1	4	+1	-2.4	7
15	Mallorca	8	1	4	3	-3	-3.9	7
16	Alaves	8	2	1	5	-6	-0.2	7
17	Celta	7	1	2	4	-4	-2.8	5
18	Las Palmas	7	1	2	4	-4	-2.9	5
19	Granada	8	1	2	5	-8	-6.0	5
20	Almeria	8	0	3	5	-10	+0.9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	+9	+5.3	12
2	Sociedad	5	3	2	0	+6	+1.1	11
3	Ath Madrid	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.7	9
4	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	+4	+3.8	9
5	Girona	4	3	0	1	+3	+1.3	9
6	Betis	4	2	2	0	+4	+2.6	8
7	Cadiz	4	2	2	0	+3	+3.8	8
8	Getafe	4	2	2	0	+2	+0.7	8
9	Ath Bilbao	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.9	7
10	Sevilla	4	2	0	2	+3	+0.8	6
11	Valencia	4	2	0	2	+2	+2.8	6
12	Alaves	4	2	0	2	-2	+1.6	6
13	Las Palmas	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.2	5
14	Vallecano	4	1	2	1	-5	-0.6	5
15	Granada	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.4	4
16	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	-2	-2.2	3
17	Mallorca	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.9	2
18	Almeria	5	0	2	3	-5	+2.1	2
19	Celta	4	0	1	3	-4	-1.7	1
20	Osasuna	4	0	1	3	-5	-1.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	5	4	0	1	+6	+1.8	12
2	Girona	4	3	1	0	+4	+1.5	10
3	Osasuna	4	3	0	1	+4	-0.2	9
4	Barcelona	4	2	2	0	+2	+4.5	8
5	Ath Madrid	4	2	1	1	+6	+2.0	7
6	Vallecano	4	2	1	1	+3	+1.7	7
7	Ath Bilbao	4	2	1	1	+1	+1.5	7
8	Villarreal	4	1	2	1	-1	-0.5	5
9	Mallorca	5	1	2	2	-2	-1.0	5
10	Celta	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.1	4
11	Sociedad	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.5	4
12	Valencia	4	1	1	2	-3	-3.0	4
13	Betis	4	1	1	2	-6	-4.8	4
14	Sevilla	3	0	1	2	-2	-3.2	1
15	Alaves	4	0	1	3	-4	-1.8	1
16	Granada	4	0	1	3	-5	-3.6	1
17	Getafe	4	0	1	3	-5	-3.0	1
18	Almeria	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.2	1
19	Cadiz	4	0	1	3	-6	-8.5	1
20	Las Palmas	4	0	0	4	-5	-2.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.