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Ekstraklasa
Referee: K Jakubik
Stal Mielec
T S U U T
1–0
Full-time
Warta Poznan
S T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stal Mielec Warta Poznan
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
1,0
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,2
2,7
Scored
0,8
1,2
Conceded
1,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-0,3
This season — Ekstraklasa · 33/33 matches
Win Ø 33%
30%
36%
Points per game
1,2
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 30%
30%
30%
Both score Ø 38%
36%
39%
Average goals
2,3
2,2
Scored
1,1
1,1
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

41% Possession 59%
6 Shots 4
1 Shots on target 1
2 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 0
5 Corners 3
0 Offside 2
19 Free kicks against 21
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Stal Mielec 13. · Warta Poznan 7.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Rakow 33 23 5 5 +39 74
2 Legia 33 18 9 6 +18 63
3 Lech Poznan 33 16 10 7 +20 58
4 Pogon Szczecin 33 16 9 8 +7 57
5 Piast Gliwice 33 14 8 11 +6 50
6 Gornik Zabrze 33 13 8 12 +2 47
7 Warta Poznan 33 12 9 12 +3 45
8 Radomiak Radom 33 12 8 13 -3 44
9 Zaglebie 33 12 8 13 -9 44
10 Cracovia 33 11 10 12 +3 43
11 Jagiellonia 33 9 14 10 +1 41
12 Widzew Lodz 33 11 8 14 -6 41
13 Stal Mielec 33 10 10 13 -5 40
14 Slask Wroclaw 33 9 11 13 -11 38
15 Korona Kielce 33 10 8 15 -12 38
16 Wisla Plock 33 10 7 16 -6 37
17 Lechia Gdansk 33 8 6 19 -25 30
18 Legnica 33 4 10 19 -22 22

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Stal Mielec Warta Poznan
1–0 F. Gerbowski
24′
Half-time 1–0
50′
🟨 Kajetan Szmyt
K. Hinokio 🔁
↦ F. Gerbowski
60′
60′
🔁 N. Mäenpää
↦ M. Kopczyński
61′
🔁 M. Szczepański
↦ M. Żurawski
61′
🔁 K. Kościelny
↦ K. Szmyt
71′
🔁 W. Kamiński
↦ S. Savić
M. Lebedyński 🔁
↦ R. Sappinen
72′
M. Mak 🔁
↦ M. Domański
83′
P. Żyra 🔁
↦ Álex Vallejo
83′
83′
🔁 J. Paszkowski
↦ A. Zreľák
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Stal Mielec

3-4-3
41 B. Mrozek G
26 A. Kasperkiewicz D
21 M. Matras D
4 M. Flis D
24 M. Wolski M
5 Álex Vallejo M
18 P. Wlazło M
23 K. Getinger M
32 F. Gerbowski F
9 R. Sappinen F
7 M. Domański F
Bench (9)
8 K. Hinokio
11 M. Lebedyński
10 M. Mak
16 P. Żyra
1 M. Kochalski
17 F. Hiszpański
74 K. Kruk
6 Leândro
88 A. Soboń

Coach: K. Kiereś

Warta Poznan

3-4-3
33 J. Grobelny G
54 D. Stavrópoulos D
44 D. Szymonowicz D
4 R. Ivanov D
24 K. Szmyt M
15 M. Kopczyński M
21 M. Kupczak M
22 K. Matuszewski M
6 M. Żurawski F
99 A. Zreľák F
77 S. Savić F
Bench (9)
8 N. Mäenpää
30 M. Szczepański
14 K. Kościelny
97 W. Kamiński
25 J. Paszkowski
5 B. Kieliba
26 N. Korzeniecki
1 A. Lis
34 W. Pleśnierowicz

Coach: D. Szulczek

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
U
B
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

K Jakubik · 45 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.