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Ekstraklasa

Referee: M Szczerbowicz

Pogon Szczecin

S U T T S

3–3

Full-time

Warta Poznan

S T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Pogon Szczecin Warta Poznan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 36%

47%

24%

Points per game

1,5

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

47%

29%

Both score Ø 41%

41%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

66% Possession 34%

14 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Pogon Szczecin 6. · Warta Poznan 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	17	11	4	2	+15	+2.4	37
2	Jagiellonia	17	10	4	3	+16	+6.8	34
3	Lech Poznan	17	9	5	3	+8	-1.9	32
4	Rakow	16	8	5	3	+14	+7.6	29
5	Legia	16	8	4	4	+6	+3.9	28
6	Pogon Szczecin	17	8	2	7	+10	+10.1	26
7	Zaglebie	18	7	4	7	-8	+3.1	25
8	Radomiak Radom	17	6	4	7	+1	+2.3	22
9	Gornik Zabrze	17	6	4	7	-2	-2.9	22
10	Widzew Lodz	17	6	4	7	-3	-2.0	22
11	Stal Mielec	16	6	3	7	-1	-7.8	21
12	Piast Gliwice	16	2	12	2	+0	+10.3	18
13	Warta Poznan	17	4	6	7	-3	-2.9	18
14	Korona Kielce	16	3	8	5	-1	-1.3	17
15	Cracovia	16	3	8	5	-6	-2.1	17
16	Puszcza	16	4	4	8	-11	-11.0	16
17	Ruch Chorzow	18	1	9	8	-12	-7.5	12
18	LKS Lodz	16	2	2	12	-23	-7.1	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	8	7	1	0	+17	+8.4	22
2	Rakow	9	6	3	0	+16	+8.0	21
3	Lech Poznan	9	6	2	1	+11	+0.6	20
4	Slask Wroclaw	8	5	2	1	+8	+4.3	17
5	Legia	9	5	2	2	+7	+6.0	17
6	Zaglebie	9	4	3	2	+0	+2.5	15
7	Widzew Lodz	8	5	0	3	+0	+4.8	15
8	Stal Mielec	8	4	2	2	+5	-0.9	14
9	Gornik Zabrze	8	4	2	2	+0	-2.9	14
10	Pogon Szczecin	9	4	1	4	+3	+11.8	13
11	Puszcza	8	3	3	2	-1	-3.4	12
12	Korona Kielce	8	2	4	2	+2	+3.9	10
13	Piast Gliwice	7	2	4	1	+1	+7.6	10
14	Radomiak Radom	8	2	3	3	+1	+2.9	9
15	Ruch Chorzow	9	1	5	3	-4	-1.7	8
16	LKS Lodz	8	2	2	4	-9	-6.1	8
17	Cracovia	8	1	4	3	-6	-0.4	7
18	Warta Poznan	9	1	3	5	-5	-0.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	9	6	2	1	+7	-1.9	20
2	Pogon Szczecin	8	4	1	3	+7	-1.7	13
3	Radomiak Radom	9	4	1	4	+0	-0.6	13
4	Warta Poznan	8	3	3	2	+2	-2.2	12
5	Jagiellonia	9	3	3	3	-1	-1.6	12
6	Lech Poznan	8	3	3	2	-3	-2.5	12
7	Legia	7	3	2	2	-1	-2.0	11
8	Cracovia	8	2	4	2	+0	-1.7	10
9	Zaglebie	9	3	1	5	-8	+0.6	10
10	Piast Gliwice	9	0	8	1	-1	+2.7	8
11	Gornik Zabrze	9	2	2	5	-2	-0.1	8
12	Rakow	7	2	2	3	-2	-0.4	8
13	Widzew Lodz	9	1	4	4	-3	-6.8	7
14	Korona Kielce	8	1	4	3	-3	-5.2	7
15	Stal Mielec	8	2	1	5	-6	-7.0	7
16	Ruch Chorzow	9	0	4	5	-8	-5.9	4
17	Puszcza	8	1	1	6	-10	-7.7	4
18	LKS Lodz	8	0	0	8	-14	-1.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.