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Ekstraklasa
Referee: P Malec
Zaglebie
S S S T T
2–2
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Zaglebie Pogon Szczecin
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,5
1,8
Scored
2,0
1,2
Conceded
1,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ekstraklasa · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
0%
100%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
2,0
3,0
Scored
0,0
3,0
Conceded
2,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
-2,0
+3,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

28% Possession 72%
7 Shots 20
2 Shots on target 6
3 Blocked shots 5
4 Goalkeeper saves 0
2 Corners 8
2 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 10
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Zaglebie 17. · Pogon Szczecin 3.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Jagiellonia 2 2 0 0 +3 -1.0 6
2 Widzew Lodz 2 1 1 0 +1 -1.0 4
3 Pogon Szczecin 1 1 0 0 +3 +2.0 3
4 Legia 1 1 0 0 +2 +1.9 3
5 Rakow 1 1 0 0 +2 +1.2 3
6 Lech Poznan 2 1 0 1 +1 +2.5 3
7 Radomiak Radom 2 1 0 1 +0 +2.9 3
8 Motor Lublin 2 1 0 1 +0 -0.1 3
9 GKS Katowice 2 1 0 1 +0 -1.4 3
10 Slask Wroclaw 1 0 1 0 +0 +1.3 1
11 Cracovia 1 0 1 0 +0 -1.1 1
12 Piast Gliwice 1 0 1 0 +0 +1.1 1
13 Stal Mielec 2 0 1 1 -1 +0.4 1
14 Puszcza 2 0 1 1 -2 -0.5 1
15 Gornik Zabrze 2 0 1 1 -2 -1.9 1
16 Lechia Gdansk 2 0 1 1 -2 -2.4 1
17 Zaglebie 1 0 0 1 -2 -1.9 0
18 Korona Kielce 1 0 0 1 -3 -2.0 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Zaglebie Pogon Szczecin
17′
E. Koulouris 0–1
K. Grosicki
1–1 T. Pieńko
M. Wdowiak
19′
Dawid Kurminowski ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
27′
2–1 D. Kurminowski
28′
39′
🟨 Linus Wahlqvist
Half-time 2–1
V. Sejk 🔁
↦ D. Kurminowski
69′
69′
🔁 R. Kurzawa
↦ K. Łukasiak
69′
🔁 Léo Borges
↦ L. Koútris
A. Radwański 🔁
↦ M. Wdowiak
70′
77′
🔁 P. Paryzek
↦ A. Gorgon
P. Kusztal 🔁
↦ T. Pieńko
78′
83′
P. Paryzek 2–2
K. Grosicki
92′
🔁 O. Korczakowski
↦ V. Bichakhchyan
92′
🔁 D. Lončar
↦ M. Malec
95′
🟨 Rafał Kurzawa
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Zaglebie

4-3-3
30 D. Hładun G
13 M. Grzybek D
31 I. Orlikowski D
5 A. Ławniczak D
55 Luís Mata D
6 T. Makowski M
8 D. Dąbrowski M
7 M. Mróz M
21 T. Pieńko F
90 D. Kurminowski F
17 M. Wdowiak F
Bench (9)
9 V. Sejk
18 A. Radwański
23 P. Kusztal
27 B. Kłudka
11 A. Woźniak
1 J. Burić
35 F. Kocaba
44 M. Reguła
16 K. Lepczyński

Coach: W. Fornalik

Pogon Szczecin

4-1-4-1
77 V. Cojocaru G
28 L. Wahlqvist D
23 B. Zech D
33 M. Malec D
32 L. Koútris D
8 F. Ulvestad M
22 V. Bichakhchyan M
19 K. Łukasiak M
20 A. Gorgon M
11 K. Grosicki M
9 E. Koulouris F
Bench (9)
7 R. Kurzawa
4 Léo Borges
51 P. Paryzek
27 O. Korczakowski
68 D. Lončar
61 K. Smoliński
31 K. Kamiński
17 J. Lis
21 João Gamboa

Coach: J. Gustafsson

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
U ✓
B
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

P Malec · 51 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,8 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.