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Championship

Referee: J Linington

Bournemouth

S S T T S

3–1

Full-time

Birmingham

S U U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bournemouth Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 59%

17%

100%

Average goals

2,0

4,3

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

0,8

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,7

This season — Championship · 29/32 matches

Win Ø 39%

52%

25%

Points per game

1,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

48%

56%

Both score Ø 43%

41%

44%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,1

Conceded

0,8

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

53% Possession 47%

9 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 8

2 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 5

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bournemouth 3. · Birmingham 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	30	19	7	4	+52	64
2	Blackburn	31	16	8	7	+18	56
3	Bournemouth	29	15	8	6	+20	53
4	West Brom	31	14	9	8	+14	51
5	QPR	29	15	6	8	+12	51
6	Huddersfield	29	13	9	7	+8	48
7	Middlesbrough	29	14	6	9	+8	48
8	Luton	29	13	8	8	+11	47
9	Sheffield United	28	14	5	9	+10	47
10	Coventry	30	13	8	9	+10	47
11	Stoke	30	13	6	11	+8	45
12	Blackpool	31	12	8	11	+0	44
13	Preston	31	11	11	9	+0	44
14	Nott'm Forest	28	12	6	10	+8	42
15	Derby	31	9	12	10	-1	39
16	Swansea	30	10	8	12	-6	38
17	Millwall	30	9	10	11	-4	37
18	Bristol City	31	10	7	14	-14	37
19	Birmingham	32	8	10	14	-16	34
20	Cardiff	30	9	6	15	-13	33
21	Hull	31	9	5	17	-10	32
22	Reading	29	9	4	16	-20	31
23	Peterborough	27	5	5	17	-32	20
24	Peterboro	28	5	5	18	-36	20
25	Barnsley	30	2	9	19	-27	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	16	11	3	2	+18	36
2	Fulham	16	10	4	2	+27	34
3	West Brom	15	9	5	1	+16	32
4	Middlesbrough	16	10	2	4	+10	32
5	Coventry	16	9	3	4	+12	30
6	Blackpool	17	9	2	6	+2	29
7	Luton	15	8	4	3	+10	28
8	QPR	15	8	4	3	+10	28
9	Huddersfield	14	8	4	2	+8	28
10	Stoke	16	8	3	5	+8	27
11	Derby	15	7	6	2	+7	27
12	Swansea	15	7	4	4	+6	25
13	Preston	15	6	7	2	+4	25
14	Bournemouth	13	7	3	3	+12	24
15	Millwall	14	6	5	3	+4	23
16	Nott'm Forest	15	7	2	6	+3	23
17	Sheffield United	12	6	2	4	+10	20
18	Bristol City	15	5	5	5	-1	20
19	Birmingham	16	5	5	6	-3	20
20	Reading	16	5	4	7	-8	19
21	Hull	16	5	3	8	-3	18
22	Peterboro	13	4	4	5	-2	16
23	Peterborough	13	4	4	5	-2	16
24	Cardiff	14	4	1	9	-5	13
25	Barnsley	14	2	4	8	-9	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	14	9	3	2	+25	30
2	Bournemouth	16	8	5	3	+8	29
3	Sheffield United	16	8	3	5	+0	27
4	QPR	14	7	2	5	+2	23
5	Huddersfield	15	5	5	5	+0	20
6	Blackburn	15	5	5	5	+0	20
7	Cardiff	16	5	5	6	-8	20
8	Nott'm Forest	13	5	4	4	+5	19
9	Luton	14	5	4	5	+1	19
10	West Brom	16	5	4	7	-2	19
11	Preston	16	5	4	7	-4	19
12	Stoke	14	5	3	6	+0	18
13	Coventry	14	4	5	5	-2	17
14	Bristol City	16	5	2	9	-13	17
15	Middlesbrough	13	4	4	5	-2	16
16	Blackpool	14	3	6	5	-2	15
17	Hull	15	4	2	9	-7	14
18	Millwall	16	3	5	8	-8	14
19	Birmingham	16	3	5	8	-13	14
20	Swansea	15	3	4	8	-12	13
21	Derby	16	2	6	8	-8	12
22	Reading	13	4	0	9	-12	12
23	Barnsley	16	0	5	11	-18	5
24	Peterborough	14	1	1	12	-30	4
25	Peterboro	15	1	1	13	-34	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.