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League Cup
Referee: M Salisbury
Stoke
S S T S T
6–1
Full-time
Rotherham
T U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Rotherham
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
50%
0%
Points per game
1,5
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
2,3
2,8
Scored
1,2
1,0
Conceded
1,2
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — League Cup · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
100%
0%
Points per game
3,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
100%
0%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
3,0
2,0
Scored
2,0
1,0
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–1

66% Possession 34%
12 Shots 13
6 Shots on target 2
4 Blocked shots 6
1 Goalkeeper saves 0
4 Corners 6
0 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Stoke 21. · Rotherham 39.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bristol City 1 1 0 0 +4 3
2 Reading 1 1 0 0 +4 3
3 Swansea 2 1 0 1 +2 3
4 Portsmouth 1 1 0 0 +2 3
5 Newport County 1 1 0 0 +2 3
6 Gillingham 1 1 0 0 +2 3
7 Ipswich 1 1 0 0 +2 3
8 Blackpool 1 1 0 0 +2 3
9 Plymouth 1 1 0 0 +2 3
10 Wycombe 1 1 0 0 +2 3
11 Leicester 1 1 0 0 +2 3
12 Lincoln 1 1 0 0 +2 3
13 Birmingham 1 1 0 0 +2 3
14 Mansfield Town 1 1 0 0 +2 3
15 Blackburn 1 1 0 0 +1 3
16 Bournemouth 1 1 0 0 +1 3
17 Middlesbrough 1 1 0 0 +1 3
18 Port Vale 1 1 0 0 +1 3
19 Leeds 1 1 0 0 +1 3
20 Doncaster 1 1 0 0 +1 3
21 Stoke 1 1 0 0 +1 3
22 Exeter City 1 1 0 0 +1 3
23 AFC Wimbledon 1 1 0 0 +1 3
24 Norwich 1 1 0 0 +1 3
25 Bolton 1 1 0 0 +1 3
26 Harrogate Town 1 1 0 0 +1 3
27 Barnsley 1 0 1 0 +0 1
28 Tranmere 1 0 1 0 +0 1
29 Preston 1 0 1 0 +0 1
30 Salford City 1 0 1 0 +0 1
31 Cardiff 1 0 1 0 +0 1
32 Colchester 1 0 1 0 +0 1
33 Sutton Utd 1 0 1 0 +0 1
34 Cambridge United 1 0 1 0 +0 1
35 Sunderland 1 0 1 0 +0 1
36 Crewe 1 0 1 0 +0 1
37 Sheffield Weds 1 0 1 0 +0 1
38 Stockport County 1 0 1 0 +0 1
39 Rotherham 1 0 1 0 +0 1
40 Morecambe 1 0 1 0 +0 1
41 Peterborough 1 0 1 0 +0 1
42 Swindon Town 1 0 1 0 +0 1
43 Accrington ST 1 0 1 0 +0 1
44 Bradford 1 0 1 0 +0 1
45 Stevenage 1 0 1 0 +0 1
46 Watford 1 0 1 0 +0 1
47 Wrexham 1 0 1 0 +0 1
48 Wigan 1 0 1 0 +0 1
49 Walsall 1 0 0 1 -1 0
50 Huddersfield 1 0 0 1 -1 0
51 Fleetwood Town 1 0 0 1 -1 0
52 Shrewsbury 1 0 0 1 -1 0
53 Hull 1 0 0 1 -1 0
54 West Brom 1 0 0 1 -1 0
55 Crawley Town 1 0 0 1 -1 0
56 Coventry 1 0 0 1 -1 0
57 QPR 1 0 0 1 -1 0
58 Barrow 1 0 0 1 -1 0
59 Carlisle 1 0 0 1 -1 0
60 Forest Green 1 0 0 1 -2 0
61 Charlton 1 0 0 1 -2 0
62 Southampton 1 0 0 1 -2 0
63 Bristol Rovers 1 0 0 1 -2 0
64 Derby 1 0 0 1 -2 0
65 Leyton Orient 1 0 0 1 -2 0
66 Milton Keynes Dons 1 0 0 1 -2 0
67 Burton Albion 1 0 0 1 -2 0
68 Notts County 1 0 0 1 -2 0
69 Cheltenham 1 0 0 1 -2 0
70 Grimsby 1 0 0 1 -2 0
71 Northampton 1 0 0 1 -3 0
72 Oxford 1 0 0 1 -4 0
73 Millwall 1 0 0 1 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Stoke Rotherham
1–0 W. Burger
2′
2–0 R. Mmaee
M. Léris
18′
22′
S. Morrison 2–1
Cafú
3–1 J. Laurent
29′
4–1 T. Campbell
R. Mmaee
43′
Half-time 4–1
D. Gayle 🔁
↦ R. Mmaee
46′
46′
🔁 O. Rathbone
↦ Cafú
46′
🔁 C. Tiéhi
↦ C. Humphreys
Ben Wilmot 🟨
47′
49′
🔁 F. Onyedinma
↦ J. Hugill
5–1 J. Laurent
T. Campbell
55′
56′
🔁 T. Eaves
↦ A. Appiah
L. McNally 🔁
↦ B. Wilmot
58′
J. Thompson 🔁
↦ B. Pearson
58′
S. Sidibe 🔁
↦ T. Campbell
64′
68′
🔁 T. Blackett
↦ A. Green
6–1 M. Léris
J. Laurent
72′
N. Jojić 🔁
↦ W. Burger
73′
Full-time 6–1

Line-ups

Stoke

4-2-3-1
13 J. Bonham G
17 K. Hoever D
5 M. Rose D
16 B. Wilmot D
14 J. Tymon D
4 B. Pearson M
6 W. Burger M
27 M. Léris M
28 J. Laurent M
10 T. Campbell M
19 R. Mmaee F
Bench (9)
11 D. Gayle
23 L. McNally
15 J. Thompson
30 S. Sidibe
21 N. Jojić
12 D. Johnson
3 E. Stevens
18 Wesley
34 F. Fielding

Coach: A. Neil

Rotherham

4-4-2
26 D. Phillips G
15 T. Bola D
23 S. Morrison D
5 J. McCart D
3 C. Bramall D
30 A. Appiah M
24 C. Humphreys M
7 Cafú M
11 A. Green M
35 C. McGuckin F
10 J. Hugill F
Bench (9)
18 O. Rathbone
27 C. Tiéhi
14 F. Onyedinma
9 T. Eaves
6 T. Blackett
19 J. Ogunfaolu-Kayode
36 H. Douglas
1 V. Johansson
2 D. Lembikisa

Coach: M. Taylor

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Salisbury · 127 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.