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Championship

Referee: J Bell

Stoke

T T S S T

1–0

Full-time

Watford

U S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,8

This season — Championship · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,0

Scored

2,0

Conceded

1,5

0,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,95 xG 0,71

42% Possession 58%

13 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 2

0 Offside 3

21 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 14. · Watford 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Southampton	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.3	7
2	Ipswich	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.7	6
3	Leicester	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.1	6
4	Watford	2	1	1	0	+4	+2.7	4
5	Norwich	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
6	Plymouth	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.1	4
7	Blackburn	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.6	4
8	Preston	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	4
9	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.6	4
10	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.3	4
11	West Brom	3	1	1	1	+0	-2.6	4
12	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.0	3
13	Hull	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.8	3
14	Stoke	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.2	3
15	Millwall	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.0	3
16	QPR	2	1	0	1	-3	-3.0	3
17	Leeds	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.4	2
18	Cardiff	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.3	1
19	Swansea	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.4	1
20	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-3	-3.5	1
21	Sunderland	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.5	0
22	Sheffield Weds	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.3	0
23	Huddersfield	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.4	0
24	Middlesbrough	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Watford	2	1	1	0	+4	+2.7	4
2	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.6	3
3	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+3	-0.4	3
4	Hull	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.4	3
5	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.3	3
6	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.6	3
7	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
8	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.2	3
9	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.4	3
10	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
11	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
12	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
13	Leeds	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.6	2
14	Southampton	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.7	1
15	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.0	1
16	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
17	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
18	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
19	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
20	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
21	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
22	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
23	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Southampton	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.6	6
2	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.7	3
3	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
4	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
5	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
6	QPR	2	1	0	1	-3	-3.0	3
7	Norwich	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.7	1
8	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
9	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.0	1
10	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
11	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
12	Plymouth	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
13	West Brom	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.8	1
14	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
15	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.2	0
16	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
17	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
18	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
19	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.4	0
20	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.1	0
21	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.3	0
22	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.6	0
23	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.