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Championship

Referee: D Webb

Millwall

T S T T T

1–0

Full-time

Stoke

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,7

2,3

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

2,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,98 xG 1,67

34% Possession 66%

17 Shots 20

7 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 7

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 7

1 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 16. · Stoke 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ipswich	3	3	0	0	+4	+0.7	9
2	Leicester	3	3	0	0	+3	-0.3	9
3	Norwich	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.8	7
4	Birmingham	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.2	7
5	Hull	4	2	1	1	+2	-2.4	7
6	Southampton	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.3	7
7	Preston	3	2	1	0	+2	-0.7	7
8	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.5	6
9	Bristol City	4	1	2	1	-1	+1.8	5
10	Watford	3	1	1	1	+3	+2.5	4
11	Coventry	3	1	1	1	+2	+0.1	4
12	Plymouth	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.1	4
13	West Brom	3	1	1	1	+0	-2.6	4
14	Blackburn	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.1	4
15	Sunderland	3	1	0	2	-1	+2.1	3
16	Millwall	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.2	3
17	QPR	3	1	0	2	-4	-3.0	3
18	Swansea	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.2	2
19	Leeds	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.4	2
20	Cardiff	3	0	1	2	-2	+0.5	1
21	Huddersfield	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.0	1
22	Rotherham	3	0	1	2	-4	-4.2	1
23	Middlesbrough	3	0	1	2	-4	+0.6	1
24	Sheffield Weds	3	0	0	3	-4	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.8	6
2	Norwich	2	2	0	0	+3	+3.5	6
3	Leicester	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.5	6
4	Watford	2	1	1	0	+4	+2.7	4
5	Hull	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.7	4
6	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+3	-0.4	3
7	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.3	3
8	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.6	3
9	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
10	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
11	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
12	Sunderland	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.3	3
13	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.1	3
14	Leeds	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.6	2
15	Swansea	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.5	2
16	Southampton	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.7	1
17	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.0	1
18	Middlesbrough	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
19	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.8	1
20	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
21	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
22	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.0	0
23	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
24	Sheffield Weds	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Southampton	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.6	6
2	Ipswich	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.6	6
3	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.0	4
4	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.6	4
5	Preston	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.1	4
6	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
7	Hull	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.7	3
8	Millwall	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.7	3
9	QPR	2	1	0	1	-3	-3.0	3
10	Norwich	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.7	1
11	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.0	1
12	Plymouth	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
13	Cardiff	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.2	1
14	Coventry	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.5	1
15	West Brom	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.8	1
16	Huddersfield	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.8	1
17	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
18	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
19	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
20	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
21	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.4	0
22	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.3	0
23	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.4	0
24	Rotherham	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.