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League Cup

Referee: R Madley

Nott'm Forest

S U T S T

0–1

Full-time

Burnley

S S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

40% Possession 60%

7 Shots 10

0 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 9

1 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Leicester	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Norwich	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Reading	2	1	1	0	+4	4
6	Cardiff	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Ipswich	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Portsmouth	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Newport County	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Mansfield Town	2	1	1	0	+2	4
11	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Sutton Utd	2	1	1	0	+1	4
13	Port Vale	2	1	1	0	+1	4
14	Exeter City	2	1	1	0	+1	4
15	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+5	3
16	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+3	3
17	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+2	3
18	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Lincoln	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Gillingham	2	1	0	1	+1	3
21	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Luton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Wycombe	2	1	0	1	+1	3
26	AFC Wimbledon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Harrogate Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	3
29	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
30	Bolton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
31	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	-3	3
32	Salford City	2	0	2	0	+0	2
33	Sheffield Weds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
34	Peterborough	2	0	2	0	+0	2
35	Bradford	2	0	2	0	+0	2
36	Stevenage	2	0	2	0	+0	2
37	Crewe	2	0	2	0	+0	2
38	Wrexham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
39	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Cambridge United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Fulham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Swindon Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Tranmere	2	0	1	1	-2	1
54	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-5	1
55	Walsall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Fleetwood Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Forest Green	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-3	0
78	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-4	0
79	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Newport County	2	1	1	0	+2	4
3	Port Vale	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Exeter City	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+5	3
6	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+3	3
7	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+2	3
8	Gillingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Mansfield Town	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Luton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	AFC Wimbledon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Harrogate Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	3
17	Bolton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	Sheffield Weds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
19	Wrexham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
20	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Sutton Utd	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Fulham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Portsmouth	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Peterborough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Stevenage	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
38	Forest Green	1	0	0	1	-2	0
39	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
40	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	0
41	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
42	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-2	0
43	Tranmere	1	0	0	1	-2	0
44	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Norwich	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Reading	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Lincoln	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Sutton Utd	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	-3	3
15	Bradford	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Crewe	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Cambridge United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Peterborough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Swindon Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Stevenage	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Walsall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Fleetwood Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
43	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
44	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-3	0
48	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-4	0
49	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.