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League Cup

Referee: J Busby

Wycombe

T S T S S

1–2

Full-time

Aston Villa

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Wycombe Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,8

3,3

Scored

1,2

2,2

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

29% Possession 71%

12 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 2

4 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Stoke	3	2	1	0	+7	7
3	Preston	3	2	1	0	+7	7
4	Fleetwood Town	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Watford	3	2	0	1	+6	6
6	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+5	6
7	Crystal Palace	2	2	0	0	+5	6
8	Blackpool	3	2	0	1	+4	6
9	Brentford	2	2	0	0	+3	6
10	Wycombe	2	2	0	0	+3	6
11	Leyton Orient	3	2	0	1	+2	6
12	Coventry	3	2	0	1	+1	6
13	Walsall	3	1	2	0	+1	5
14	Leicester	2	1	1	0	+4	4
15	Everton	2	1	1	0	+3	4
16	Southampton	2	1	1	0	+2	4
17	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
18	Bolton	2	1	1	0	+2	4
19	AFC Wimbledon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
20	Derby	2	1	1	0	+1	4
21	QPR	3	1	1	1	+0	4
22	Barrow	3	1	1	1	-4	4
23	Barnsley	3	1	1	1	-6	4
24	Man United	1	1	0	0	+7	3
25	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+5	3
26	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+4	3
27	Huddersfield	2	1	0	1	+2	3
28	Sheffield United	2	1	0	1	+1	3
29	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+1	3
30	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+1	3
31	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+1	3
32	Man City	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Oxford	2	1	0	1	+1	3
35	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	Rotherham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Millwall	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Tranmere	2	1	0	1	-1	3
40	Doncaster	2	1	0	1	-1	3
41	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	-1	3
42	Crawley Town	2	1	0	1	-2	3
43	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	-2	3
44	Norwich	2	1	0	1	-3	3
45	Harrogate Town	2	1	0	1	-4	3
46	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Exeter City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Colchester	2	0	1	1	-1	1
57	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-2	1
58	Grimsby	2	0	1	1	-4	1
59	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Bromley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Cambridge United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-3	0
83	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-3	0
84	Morecambe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
85	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	0
86	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-3	0
87	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-4	0
88	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-5	0
89	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Walsall	3	1	2	0	+1	5
5	Everton	2	1	1	0	+3	4
6	Preston	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Barrow	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Man United	1	1	0	0	+7	3
9	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+5	3
10	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+4	3
11	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+4	3
12	Leyton Orient	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Huddersfield	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Tranmere	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Sheffield United	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Crawley Town	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+1	3
23	Man City	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Barnsley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	3
29	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+0	3
30	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	QPR	2	0	1	1	-1	1
36	Colchester	2	0	1	1	-1	1
37	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-2	1
38	Grimsby	2	0	1	1	-4	1
39	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Bromley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Cambridge United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-3	0
54	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-4	0
55	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-5	0
56	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-5	0
57	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Blackpool	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Wycombe	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Southampton	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+5	3
8	Preston	1	1	0	0	+5	3
9	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Harrogate Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	AFC Wimbledon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	QPR	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Doncaster	2	1	0	1	-1	3
21	Leyton Orient	2	1	0	1	-1	3
22	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Exeter City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Barnsley	2	0	1	1	-7	1
34	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-3	0
55	Morecambe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
56	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	0
57	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-3	0
58	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-4	0
59	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-4	0
60	Tranmere	1	0	0	1	-4	0
61	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-5	0
62	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.