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Premier League

Referee: T Robinson

Aston Villa

S T S S S

3–1

Full-time

Wolves

T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Wolves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,5

3,7

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

75%

Points per game

2,3

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

75%

Average goals

3,3

3,8

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

1,5

2,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,73 xG 0,51

53% Possession 47%

9 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

6 Corners 5

1 Offside 5

11 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 6. · Wolves 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	4	4	0	0	+8	+6.3	12
2	Chelsea	5	3	1	1	+6	+2.1	10
3	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+5	+0.6	10
4	Newcastle	4	3	1	0	+3	-1.2	10
5	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	+6	+5.4	9
6	Aston Villa	4	3	0	1	+1	+2.3	9
7	Brighton	4	2	2	0	+4	+2.7	8
8	Nott'm Forest	4	2	2	0	+2	+2.2	8
9	Brentford	4	2	0	2	+0	-1.9	6
10	Man United	4	2	0	2	+0	+2.5	6
11	Bournemouth	4	1	2	1	+0	+1.7	5
12	Fulham	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.5	5
13	Tottenham	4	1	1	2	+2	+1.0	4
14	West Ham	5	1	1	3	-4	-3.9	4
15	Leicester	4	0	2	2	-2	-3.7	2
16	Crystal Palace	4	0	2	2	-3	-1.0	2
17	Ipswich	4	0	2	2	-5	-7.1	2
18	Wolves	4	0	1	3	-7	-1.1	1
19	Southampton	4	0	0	4	-7	-3.5	0
20	Everton	4	0	0	4	-9	-3.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	+4.3	6
2	Brentford	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.6	6
3	Newcastle	2	2	0	0	+2	-1.0	6
4	Arsenal	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.0	4
5	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.0	4
6	Brighton	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.0	4
7	Tottenham	2	1	0	1	+3	+1.4	3
8	Liverpool	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.8	3
9	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.6	3
10	Man United	2	1	0	1	-2	+1.6	3
11	Nott'm Forest	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.4	2
12	Leicester	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.2	1
13	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.6	1
14	Crystal Palace	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.3	1
15	Chelsea	2	0	1	1	-2	+2.1	1
16	Ipswich	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.7	1
17	Everton	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.2	0
18	Southampton	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.9	0
19	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-5	-0.0	0
20	West Ham	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	3	3	0	0	+8	+0.1	9
2	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.6	6
3	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.0	6
4	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.4	6
5	Aston Villa	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.7	6
6	Nott'm Forest	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.8	6
7	Brighton	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.7	4
8	West Ham	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.7	4
9	Bournemouth	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
10	Newcastle	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.3	4
11	Man United	2	1	0	1	+2	+0.9	3
12	Leicester	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.5	1
13	Tottenham	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.4	1
14	Crystal Palace	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.2	1
15	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.5	1
16	Wolves	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.1	1
17	Ipswich	2	0	1	1	-3	-4.4	1
18	Brentford	2	0	0	2	-3	-3.5	0
19	Southampton	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.3	0
20	Everton	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.