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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Aston Villa

U T S T S

3–2

Full-time

Everton

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Everton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,5

3,2

Scored

1,2

Conceded

2,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,0

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

4,0

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

1,3

3,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-2,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

2,12 xG 0,90

73% Possession 27%

17 Shots 6

8 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 2

1 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 9. · Everton 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	4	4	0	0	+8	+6.3	12
2	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	+6	+5.4	9
3	Brighton	4	2	2	0	+4	+2.7	8
4	Nott'm Forest	4	2	2	0	+2	+2.2	8
5	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.6	7
6	Newcastle	3	2	1	0	+2	-1.5	7
7	Brentford	4	2	0	2	+0	-1.9	6
8	Man United	4	2	0	2	+0	+2.5	6
9	Aston Villa	3	2	0	1	+0	+1.1	6
10	Bournemouth	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.7	5
11	Fulham	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.5	5
12	Tottenham	3	1	1	1	+3	+1.0	4
13	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+2	+1.8	4
14	West Ham	4	1	1	2	-1	-2.6	4
15	Leicester	4	0	2	2	-2	-3.7	2
16	Crystal Palace	4	0	2	2	-3	-1.0	2
17	Ipswich	4	0	2	2	-5	-7.1	2
18	Wolves	3	0	1	2	-6	-0.8	1
19	Southampton	4	0	0	4	-7	-3.5	0
20	Everton	3	0	0	3	-8	-2.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	+4.3	6
2	Brentford	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.6	6
3	Newcastle	2	2	0	0	+2	-1.0	6
4	Arsenal	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.0	4
5	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.0	4
6	Brighton	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.0	4
7	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.4	3
8	Liverpool	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.8	3
9	Man United	2	1	0	1	-2	+1.6	3
10	Nott'm Forest	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.4	2
11	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
12	Leicester	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.2	1
13	Crystal Palace	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.3	1
14	Chelsea	2	0	1	1	-2	+2.1	1
15	Ipswich	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.7	1
16	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.4	0
17	West Ham	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.8	0
18	Everton	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.2	0
19	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-4	+0.3	0
20	Southampton	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.6	6
2	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.0	6
3	Aston Villa	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.7	6
4	Nott'm Forest	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.8	6
5	Brighton	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.7	4
6	West Ham	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.7	4
7	Bournemouth	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
8	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+4	-0.3	3
9	Man United	2	1	0	1	+2	+0.9	3
10	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.4	3
11	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
12	Leicester	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.5	1
13	Tottenham	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.4	1
14	Crystal Palace	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.2	1
15	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.5	1
16	Wolves	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.1	1
17	Ipswich	2	0	1	1	-3	-4.4	1
18	Brentford	2	0	0	2	-3	-3.5	0
19	Southampton	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.3	0
20	Everton	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.