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League Cup

Referee: Jacob Miles

Reading

U S S T S

2–1

Full-time

AFC Wimbledon

U T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Reading AFC Wimbledon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

4,0

2,5

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

This season — League Cup · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

49% Possession 51%

9 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Reading 17. · AFC Wimbledon 42. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Accrington ST	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.9	6
2	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+4	+0.1	3
3	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
4	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.6	3
5	Lincoln	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.8	3
6	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.5	3
7	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
8	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
9	Mansfield Town	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
10	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.1	3
11	Cheltenham	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
12	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
13	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
14	Bradford	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.7	3
15	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.9	3
16	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.3	3
17	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
18	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
19	Wigan	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
20	Port Vale	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
21	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
22	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
23	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.4	3
24	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
25	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
26	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.8	1
27	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
28	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
29	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
30	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
31	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
32	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
33	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
34	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
35	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
36	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
37	Bromley	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
38	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
39	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
40	Burton Albion	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
41	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
42	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
43	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
44	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
45	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
46	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
47	Newport County	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.7	1
48	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
49	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
50	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
51	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
52	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
53	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
54	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
55	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
56	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
57	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
58	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
59	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
60	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
61	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
62	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
63	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
64	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
65	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
66	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
67	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
68	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
69	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
70	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
71	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
72	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Accrington ST	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.9	6
2	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
3	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.6	3
4	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.5	3
5	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
6	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
7	Cheltenham	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
8	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
9	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.9	3
10	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.3	3
11	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
12	Wigan	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
13	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
14	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.8	1
15	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
16	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
17	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
18	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
19	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
20	Bromley	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
21	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
22	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
23	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
24	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
25	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
26	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
27	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
28	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
29	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
30	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
31	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
32	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
33	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
34	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
35	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
36	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+4	+0.1	3
2	Lincoln	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.8	3
3	Mansfield Town	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
4	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.1	3
5	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
6	Bradford	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.7	3
7	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
8	Port Vale	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
9	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
10	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.4	3
11	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
12	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
13	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
14	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
15	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
16	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
17	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
18	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
19	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
20	Burton Albion	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
21	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
22	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
23	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
24	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
25	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
26	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
27	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
28	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
29	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
30	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
31	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
32	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
33	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
34	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
35	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
36	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
37	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.