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League Cup

Referee: Tony Harrington

Grimsby

T U T T S

2–2

Full-time

Man United

T T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Grimsby Man United

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

4,0

1,5

Scored

2,0

0,5

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

30% Possession 70%

10 Shots 28

4 Shots on target 9

4 Blocked shots 14

7 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 4

5 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Doncaster	2	2	0	0	+6	+0.1	6
2	Bradford	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.7	6
3	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
4	Cambridge United	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.1	6
5	Southampton	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.8	6
6	Lincoln	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.8	6
7	Reading	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.3	6
8	Millwall	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.5	6
9	Port Vale	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
10	Wigan	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
11	Accrington ST	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.9	6
12	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.6	4
13	Wrexham	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.8	4
14	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.5	4
15	Plymouth	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.0	4
16	Wycombe	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.4	4
17	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+6	–	3
18	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.5	3
19	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
20	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
21	Mansfield Town	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
22	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
23	Stockport County	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.9	3
24	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
25	Charlton	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.8	3
26	Preston	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
27	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
28	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.2	3
29	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
30	Cheltenham	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.5	3
31	Norwich	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.9	3
32	Oxford	2	1	0	1	-5	+0.2	3
33	Sheffield Weds	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.5	2
34	Huddersfield	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.1	2
35	Bromley	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
36	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
37	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
38	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
39	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
40	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
41	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
42	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
43	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
44	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
45	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
46	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
47	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
48	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
49	Derby	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
50	AFC Wimbledon	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
51	Newport County	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.7	1
52	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
53	Burton Albion	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
54	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.6	1
55	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
56	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
57	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
58	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
59	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
60	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
61	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
62	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
63	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
64	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
65	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
66	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
67	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
68	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
69	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
70	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
71	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
72	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
73	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
74	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
75	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
76	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
77	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
78	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
79	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
80	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
81	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
2	Wigan	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
3	Accrington ST	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.9	6
4	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.6	4
5	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.5	4
6	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
7	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.5	3
8	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
9	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
10	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
11	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
12	Cheltenham	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
13	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
14	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
15	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
16	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
17	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
18	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
19	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
20	Oxford	2	1	0	1	-5	+0.2	3
21	Bromley	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
22	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.8	1
23	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
24	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
25	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
26	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
27	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
28	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
29	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
30	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
31	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
32	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.6	1
33	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
34	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
35	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
36	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
37	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
38	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
39	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
40	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
41	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
42	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
43	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
44	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
45	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
46	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
47	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
48	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Doncaster	2	2	0	0	+6	+0.1	6
2	Bradford	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.7	6
3	Southampton	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.8	6
4	Lincoln	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.8	6
5	Port Vale	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
6	Wycombe	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.4	4
7	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+6	–	3
8	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
9	Mansfield Town	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
10	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.1	3
11	Wrexham	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
12	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
13	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
14	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
15	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
16	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
17	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
18	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
19	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
20	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
21	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
22	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
23	Plymouth	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
24	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
25	Burton Albion	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
26	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
27	Derby	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
28	AFC Wimbledon	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
29	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
30	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
31	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
32	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
33	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
34	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
35	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
36	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
37	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
38	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
39	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
40	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
41	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
42	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
43	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
44	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
45	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
46	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
47	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
48	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
49	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.