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Copa del Rey

Referee: César Soto

Real Madrid

S S T S S

3–1

Full-time

Ath Madrid

S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

0,8

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,3

This season — Copa del Rey · 2/4 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

50%

25%

Both score Ø 38%

50%

25%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

2,0

2,3

Conceded

1,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

61% Possession 39%

23 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 0

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 6

11 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Real Madrid 22. · Ath Madrid 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Bilbao	5	5	0	0	+11	15
2	Osasuna	5	4	1	0	+7	13
3	Sevilla	5	4	0	1	+10	12
4	Sociedad	5	4	0	1	+9	12
5	Ath Madrid	4	4	0	0	+8	12
6	Villarreal	4	3	0	1	+13	9
7	Mallorca	4	3	0	1	+8	9
8	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+7	9
9	Espanol	4	3	0	1	+5	9
10	Levante	4	3	0	1	+4	9
11	Sp Gijon	4	3	0	1	+2	9
12	Alaves	4	3	0	1	+2	9
13	Ceuta	4	3	0	1	-2	9
14	Celta	3	2	0	1	+6	6
15	Valencia	3	2	0	1	+5	6
16	Valladolid	3	2	0	1	+5	6
17	Elche	3	2	0	1	+5	6
18	Cacereño	3	2	0	1	+3	6
19	Getafe	3	2	0	1	+2	6
20	Intercity	3	2	0	1	+2	6
21	Gimnastic	3	2	0	1	+2	6
22	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	+2	6
23	Pontevedra	3	2	0	1	+1	6
24	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	3	2	0	1	+0	6
25	Oviedo	3	2	0	1	+0	6
26	Linares Deportivo	3	2	0	1	-3	6
27	Betis	2	1	1	0	+3	4
28	Albacete	2	1	1	0	+3	4
29	UD Logroñés	3	1	1	1	+1	4
30	Saguntino	2	1	1	0	+1	4
31	Las Palmas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
32	Vallecano	3	1	1	1	+0	4
33	La Nucía	3	1	1	1	-1	4
34	Cartagena	3	1	1	1	-3	4
35	Eldense	3	1	1	1	-4	4
36	Eibar	2	1	0	1	+2	3
37	Andorra	2	1	0	1	+1	3
38	Ibiza	2	1	0	1	+1	3
39	Guijuelo	2	1	0	1	+1	3
40	Tenerife	2	1	0	1	+1	3
41	Mollerussa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	Fuentes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
43	Granada	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	Alcora	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	Girona	2	1	0	1	+0	3
46	Real Unión	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	Arenteiro	2	1	0	1	+0	3
48	Mirandes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
49	Sestao River	2	1	0	1	+0	3
50	Numancia	2	1	0	1	-1	3
51	Barbadás	2	1	0	1	-1	3
52	Velarde	2	1	0	1	-1	3
53	Diocesano	2	1	0	1	-1	3
54	Algar	2	1	0	1	-2	3
55	Cazalegas	2	1	0	1	-2	3
56	Guadalajara	2	1	0	1	-2	3
57	Arenas Getxo	2	1	0	1	-3	3
58	CD Coria	2	1	0	1	-3	3
59	Santa Amalia	2	1	0	1	-8	3
60	Alcorcon	2	0	2	0	+0	2
61	Huesca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
62	Coruxo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
63	Utebo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
64	Dinamo San Juan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
65	Peña Deportiva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
66	Real Murcia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
67	Atlético Baleares	1	0	1	0	+0	1
68	Ourense CF	1	0	1	0	+0	1
69	Montilla	1	0	1	0	+0	1
70	Leganes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
71	Recreativo Huelva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
72	Malaga	2	0	1	1	-1	1
73	Mérida AD	2	0	1	1	-1	1
74	Atlético Paso	2	0	1	1	-1	1
75	Burgos	2	0	1	1	-1	1
76	Arnedo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
77	Juventud Torremolinos	2	0	1	1	-3	1
78	Rincón	2	0	1	1	-3	1
79	Gernika	2	0	1	1	-3	1
80	Autol	2	0	1	1	-6	1
81	Beasain	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Gimnástica Torrelavega	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Yeclano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Cadiz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	San Roque Lepe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Universitario FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Atlético Lugones	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Los Yébenes SB	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Unión Adarve	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Quintanar del Rey	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Turégano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Amorebieta	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Ferrol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Lugo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Utrera	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Santander	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Zaragoza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Alfaro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Cirbonero	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Lleida Esportiu	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Cardassar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
104	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-2	0
105	Manacor	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Navalcarnero	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	Manresa	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	Rayo Majadahonda	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	La Coruna	1	0	0	1	-2	0
110	Racing Rioja	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	Cristo Atlético	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	Fuenlabrada	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Almazán	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	Lealtad	1	0	0	1	-2	0
115	Vimenor	1	0	0	1	-2	0
116	San Juan	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	Almeria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
118	Alzira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
119	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-3	0
120	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-3	0
121	Amigó	1	0	0	1	-3	0
122	Huétor Tájar	1	0	0	1	-3	0
123	Cordoba	1	0	0	1	-3	0
124	Las Rozas	1	0	0	1	-3	0
125	Olot	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cacereño	3	2	0	1	+3	6
2	Levante	3	2	0	1	+0	6
3	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	3	2	0	1	+0	6
4	Ceuta	3	2	0	1	-3	6
5	Saguntino	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Espanol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Intercity	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Guijuelo	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Osasuna	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Ath Bilbao	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Sociedad	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Mollerussa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Gimnastic	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Real Unión	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Arenteiro	2	1	0	1	+0	3
17	Alaves	2	1	0	1	+0	3
18	Sestao River	2	1	0	1	+0	3
19	Barbadás	2	1	0	1	-1	3
20	Pontevedra	2	1	0	1	-1	3
21	Oviedo	2	1	0	1	-1	3
22	Velarde	2	1	0	1	-1	3
23	Diocesano	2	1	0	1	-1	3
24	Algar	2	1	0	1	-2	3
25	Cazalegas	2	1	0	1	-2	3
26	Sp Gijon	2	1	0	1	-2	3
27	Guadalajara	2	1	0	1	-2	3
28	Arenas Getxo	2	1	0	1	-3	3
29	CD Coria	2	1	0	1	-3	3
30	Eldense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
31	Linares Deportivo	2	1	0	1	-4	3
32	Santa Amalia	2	1	0	1	-8	3
33	Betis	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Coruxo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Utebo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Alcorcon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Peña Deportiva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Ourense CF	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Montilla	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Recreativo Huelva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Atlético Paso	2	0	1	1	-1	1
42	UD Logroñés	2	0	1	1	-1	1
43	Arnedo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
44	Juventud Torremolinos	2	0	1	1	-3	1
45	Gernika	2	0	1	1	-3	1
46	La Nucía	2	0	1	1	-3	1
47	Autol	2	0	1	1	-6	1
48	Villarreal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Beasain	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Gimnástica Torrelavega	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Yeclano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	San Roque Lepe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Unión Adarve	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Quintanar del Rey	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Utrera	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Alfaro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Cirbonero	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Lleida Esportiu	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Mérida AD	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Valencia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Manacor	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Navalcarnero	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Manresa	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Racing Rioja	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Cristo Atlético	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Almazán	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Lealtad	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Vimenor	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	San Juan	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Alzira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Fuentes	1	0	0	1	-3	0
74	Numancia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
75	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-3	0
76	Alcora	1	0	0	1	-3	0
77	Amigó	1	0	0	1	-3	0
78	Rincón	1	0	0	1	-3	0
79	Huétor Tájar	1	0	0	1	-3	0
80	Las Rozas	1	0	0	1	-3	0
81	Cartagena	1	0	0	1	-4	0
82	Olot	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Bilbao	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Sevilla	5	4	0	1	+10	12
3	Ath Madrid	4	4	0	0	+8	12
4	Osasuna	4	3	1	0	+6	10
5	Villarreal	3	3	0	0	+14	9
6	Sociedad	4	3	0	1	+8	9
7	Mallorca	4	3	0	1	+8	9
8	Valencia	2	2	0	0	+7	6
9	Celta	3	2	0	1	+6	6
10	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+6	6
11	Valladolid	3	2	0	1	+5	6
12	Elche	3	2	0	1	+5	6
13	Sp Gijon	2	2	0	0	+4	6
14	Espanol	3	2	0	1	+3	6
15	Getafe	3	2	0	1	+2	6
16	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	+2	6
17	Alaves	2	2	0	0	+2	6
18	Albacete	2	1	1	0	+3	4
19	Cartagena	2	1	1	0	+1	4
20	Las Palmas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
21	Vallecano	3	1	1	1	+0	4
22	Levante	1	1	0	0	+4	3
23	Betis	1	1	0	0	+3	3
24	Alcora	1	1	0	0	+3	3
25	Fuentes	1	1	0	0	+3	3
26	La Nucía	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	UD Logroñés	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Eibar	2	1	0	1	+2	3
29	Pontevedra	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Gimnastic	1	1	0	0	+2	3
31	Numancia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
32	Andorra	2	1	0	1	+1	3
33	Ibiza	2	1	0	1	+1	3
34	Oviedo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Tenerife	2	1	0	1	+1	3
36	Linares Deportivo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Ceuta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Intercity	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Granada	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Girona	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Mirandes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	Huesca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Eldense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Mérida AD	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Dinamo San Juan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Real Murcia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Atlético Baleares	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Alcorcon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Rincón	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Leganes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Malaga	2	0	1	1	-1	1
52	Burgos	2	0	1	1	-1	1
53	Cadiz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Universitario FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Atlético Lugones	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Los Yébenes SB	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Turégano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Amorebieta	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Ferrol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Lugo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Santander	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Zaragoza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Cardassar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Rayo Majadahonda	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	La Coruna	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Fuenlabrada	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Almeria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-3	0
70	Cordoba	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.