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La Liga

Referee: José Sánchez

Ath Bilbao

U S U T S

0–2

Full-time

Real Madrid

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,2

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,5

This season — La Liga · 17/16 matches

Win Ø 58%

41%

75%

Points per game

1,5

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

53%

75%

Both score Ø 58%

35%

81%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

1,5

2,3

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,21 xG 1,12

50% Possession 50%

18 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

12 Corners 2

3 Offside 2

17 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Bilbao 8. · Real Madrid 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	14	2	1	+30	-0.4	44
2	Real Madrid	16	12	2	2	+20	–	38
3	Sociedad	18	12	2	4	+10	+0.8	38
4	Ath Madrid	18	9	4	5	+11	+2.9	31
5	Villarreal	18	9	4	5	+8	+2.3	31
6	Betis	17	8	4	5	+5	-1.4	28
7	Osasuna	18	8	4	6	+1	-0.8	28
8	Ath Bilbao	17	7	5	5	+8	–	26
9	Vallecano	18	7	5	6	+2	-0.8	26
10	Mallorca	18	7	4	7	-1	+0.0	25
11	Girona	18	5	6	7	-2	-2.3	21
12	Espanol	18	4	8	6	-4	+1.4	20
13	Valencia	16	5	4	7	+5	–	19
14	Almeria	17	5	3	9	-8	–	18
15	Sevilla	18	4	6	8	-8	+1.6	18
16	Getafe	18	4	5	9	-9	+0.4	17
17	Celta	18	4	5	9	-12	-0.0	17
18	Valladolid	18	5	2	11	-15	-2.9	17
19	Cadiz	18	3	7	8	-17	-1.6	16
20	Elche	18	0	6	12	-24	+0.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	9	7	2	0	+18	-0.4	23
2	Villarreal	8	6	1	1	+8	+2.3	19
3	Osasuna	9	6	0	3	+4	–	18
4	Real Madrid	7	5	2	0	+9	–	17
5	Ath Bilbao	9	5	2	2	+8	–	17
6	Betis	8	5	2	1	+7	–	17
7	Sociedad	9	5	2	2	+2	–	17
8	Almeria	9	5	1	3	+3	–	16
9	Girona	9	4	3	2	+2	–	15
10	Ath Madrid	9	4	2	3	+5	+2.9	14
11	Vallecano	9	4	2	3	+2	-0.8	14
12	Mallorca	9	4	2	3	+1	+0.0	14
13	Valencia	9	4	1	4	+7	–	13
14	Valladolid	9	4	1	4	-1	–	13
15	Celta	9	2	4	3	-1	–	10
16	Getafe	9	2	3	4	-3	–	9
17	Espanol	9	2	3	4	-4	+1.4	9
18	Sevilla	9	2	3	4	-5	+1.6	9
19	Cadiz	9	1	5	3	-8	–	8
20	Elche	9	0	3	6	-10	+0.8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	8	7	0	1	+12	–	21
2	Real Madrid	9	7	0	2	+11	–	21
3	Sociedad	9	7	0	2	+8	+0.8	21
4	Ath Madrid	9	5	2	2	+6	–	17
5	Vallecano	9	3	3	3	+0	–	12
6	Villarreal	10	3	3	4	+0	–	12
7	Espanol	9	2	5	2	+0	–	11
8	Mallorca	9	3	2	4	-2	–	11
9	Betis	9	3	2	4	-2	-1.4	11
10	Osasuna	9	2	4	3	-3	-0.8	10
11	Ath Bilbao	8	2	3	3	+0	–	9
12	Sevilla	9	2	3	4	-3	–	9
13	Getafe	9	2	2	5	-6	+0.4	8
14	Cadiz	9	2	2	5	-9	-1.6	8
15	Celta	9	2	1	6	-11	-0.0	7
16	Valencia	7	1	3	3	-2	–	6
17	Girona	9	1	3	5	-4	-2.3	6
18	Valladolid	9	1	1	7	-14	-2.9	4
19	Elche	9	0	3	6	-14	–	3
20	Almeria	8	0	2	6	-11	–	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.