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La Liga

Referee: César Soto

Villarreal

S S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Real Madrid

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

4,0

3,2

Scored

3,2

2,2

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+1,2

This season — La Liga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 64%

47%

80%

Points per game

1,6

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

33%

73%

Both score Ø 50%

20%

80%

Average goals

1,9

3,3

Scored

1,1

2,3

Conceded

0,7

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

49% Possession 51%

17 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 5

2 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 6

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 7. · Real Madrid 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	15	12	2	1	+28	38
2	Real Madrid	15	12	2	1	+21	38
3	Sociedad	15	9	2	4	+4	29
4	Ath Madrid	15	8	3	4	+9	27
5	Ath Bilbao	15	7	4	4	+10	25
6	Betis	15	7	4	4	+5	25
7	Villarreal	15	7	3	5	+6	24
8	Vallecano	15	6	5	4	+4	23
9	Osasuna	15	7	2	6	+0	23
10	Valencia	16	5	4	7	+5	19
11	Mallorca	15	5	4	6	-2	19
12	Girona	15	4	5	6	-2	17
13	Almeria	15	5	2	8	-6	17
14	Getafe	15	4	5	6	-6	17
15	Valladolid	15	5	2	8	-10	17
16	Celta	16	4	4	8	-11	16
17	Cadiz	16	3	6	7	-16	15
18	Espanol	15	2	7	6	-6	13
19	Sevilla	15	2	6	7	-9	12
20	Elche	16	0	4	12	-24	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	8	6	2	0	+17	20
2	Real Madrid	7	5	2	0	+9	17
3	Betis	8	5	2	1	+7	17
4	Ath Bilbao	8	5	1	2	+8	16
5	Almeria	7	5	0	2	+5	15
6	Osasuna	8	5	0	3	+3	15
7	Vallecano	7	4	2	1	+5	14
8	Sociedad	8	4	2	2	+0	14
9	Valencia	9	4	1	4	+7	13
10	Villarreal	6	4	1	1	+6	13
11	Valladolid	8	4	1	3	+0	13
12	Girona	8	3	3	2	+1	12
13	Ath Madrid	7	3	2	2	+3	11
14	Celta	8	2	3	3	-1	9
15	Getafe	8	2	3	3	-2	9
16	Mallorca	7	2	2	3	-1	8
17	Cadiz	8	1	4	3	-8	7
18	Espanol	7	1	2	4	-5	5
19	Sevilla	7	0	3	4	-7	3
20	Elche	8	0	2	6	-10	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	8	7	0	1	+12	21
2	Barcelona	7	6	0	1	+11	18
3	Ath Madrid	8	5	1	2	+6	16
4	Sociedad	7	5	0	2	+4	15
5	Villarreal	9	3	2	4	+0	11
6	Mallorca	8	3	2	3	-1	11
7	Ath Bilbao	7	2	3	2	+2	9
8	Vallecano	8	2	3	3	-1	9
9	Sevilla	8	2	3	3	-2	9
10	Espanol	8	1	5	2	-1	8
11	Betis	7	2	2	3	-2	8
12	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	-3	8
13	Getafe	7	2	2	3	-4	8
14	Cadiz	8	2	2	4	-8	8
15	Celta	8	2	1	5	-10	7
16	Valencia	7	1	3	3	-2	6
17	Girona	7	1	2	4	-3	5
18	Valladolid	7	1	1	5	-10	4
19	Almeria	8	0	2	6	-11	2
20	Elche	8	0	2	6	-14	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.