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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Hernández

Ath Madrid

U S U T S

1–1

Full-time

Real Madrid

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,8

This season — La Liga · 24/25 matches

Win Ø 70%

75%

64%

Points per game

2,4

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

42%

40%

Both score Ø 47%

42%

52%

Average goals

2,6

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,7

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

39% Possession 61%

11 Shots 18

5 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 2

7 Goalkeeper saves 4

1 Corners 6

19 Free kicks against 9

5 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Madrid 1. · Real Madrid 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	24	18	4	2	+31	58
2	Barcelona	26	17	5	4	+35	56
3	Real Madrid	25	16	5	4	+23	53
4	Sevilla	25	15	3	7	+15	48
5	Sociedad	25	11	9	5	+21	42
6	Betis	25	12	3	10	-5	39
7	Villarreal	26	8	13	5	+5	37
8	Celta	26	8	9	9	-6	33
9	Granada	25	9	6	10	-11	33
10	Levante	25	7	11	7	+1	32
11	Ath Bilbao	24	8	6	10	+6	30
12	Valencia	26	7	9	10	-4	30
13	Osasuna	26	7	7	12	-12	28
14	Cadiz	26	7	7	12	-19	28
15	Getafe	26	7	6	13	-11	27
16	Valladolid	26	5	10	11	-12	25
17	Elche	25	5	9	11	-14	24
18	Eibar	26	4	10	12	-9	22
19	Alaves	25	5	7	13	-19	22
20	Huesca	26	3	11	12	-15	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	12	9	2	1	+19	29
2	Barcelona	13	8	4	1	+19	28
3	Real Madrid	12	8	1	3	+13	25
4	Sevilla	12	8	1	3	+10	25
5	Granada	13	7	3	3	+3	24
6	Villarreal	13	5	6	2	+4	21
7	Sociedad	12	5	5	2	+12	20
8	Ath Bilbao	12	6	2	4	+9	20
9	Valencia	13	5	5	3	+5	20
10	Betis	12	6	2	4	+1	20
11	Celta	12	6	2	4	+0	20
12	Levante	13	4	7	2	+3	19
13	Getafe	13	5	3	5	+3	18
14	Elche	13	3	6	4	-5	15
15	Osasuna	13	4	3	6	-6	15
16	Alaves	13	3	4	6	-6	13
17	Valladolid	13	3	4	6	-7	13
18	Cadiz	14	3	4	7	-10	13
19	Huesca	13	2	5	6	-6	11
20	Eibar	13	1	6	6	-7	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	12	9	2	1	+12	29
2	Barcelona	13	9	1	3	+16	28
3	Real Madrid	13	8	4	1	+10	28
4	Sevilla	13	7	2	4	+5	23
5	Sociedad	13	6	4	3	+9	22
6	Betis	13	6	1	6	-6	19
7	Villarreal	13	3	7	3	+1	16
8	Cadiz	12	4	3	5	-9	15
9	Levante	12	3	4	5	-2	13
10	Eibar	13	3	4	6	-2	13
11	Celta	14	2	7	5	-6	13
12	Osasuna	13	3	4	6	-6	13
13	Valladolid	13	2	6	5	-5	12
14	Ath Bilbao	12	2	4	6	-3	10
15	Valencia	13	2	4	7	-9	10
16	Huesca	13	1	6	6	-9	9
17	Elche	12	2	3	7	-9	9
18	Alaves	12	2	3	7	-13	9
19	Granada	12	2	3	7	-14	9
20	Getafe	13	2	3	8	-14	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.