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La Liga

Referee: Jorge Figueroa Vazquez

Real Madrid

S S S U S

4–1

Full-time

Villarreal

S U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

4,0

3,2

Scored

3,0

1,7

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 50%

75%

25%

Points per game

2,4

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

56%

69%

Both score Ø 66%

50%

81%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

2,1

1,4

Conceded

0,6

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,32 xG 0,75

60% Possession 40%

22 Shots 3

9 Shots on target 1

8 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

11 Corners 0

4 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 2. · Villarreal 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Girona	16	13	2	1	+18	+7.8	41
2	Real Madrid	16	12	3	1	+24	+12.8	39
3	Barcelona	17	10	5	2	+12	+20.1	35
4	Ath Madrid	16	11	1	4	+16	+10.1	34
5	Ath Bilbao	17	9	5	3	+14	+11.9	32
6	Sociedad	17	8	6	3	+11	+1.9	30
7	Betis	17	6	9	2	+2	-0.1	27
8	Getafe	17	6	7	4	+1	-2.9	25
9	Las Palmas	17	7	4	6	+1	-5.9	25
10	Valencia	17	5	5	7	-4	-2.5	20
11	Vallecano	17	4	8	5	-7	-5.2	20
12	Osasuna	17	5	4	8	-7	-5.4	19
13	Alaves	16	4	4	8	-6	+2.2	16
14	Villarreal	16	4	4	8	-7	-5.0	16
15	Mallorca	17	2	9	6	-6	-2.3	15
16	Cadiz	17	2	8	7	-10	-10.8	14
17	Sevilla	16	2	7	7	-4	-6.0	13
18	Celta	17	2	7	8	-9	-1.1	13
19	Granada	17	1	5	11	-17	-13.5	8
20	Almeria	17	0	5	12	-22	-5.9	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	8	8	0	0	+11	+10.1	24
2	Barcelona	9	7	0	2	+9	+9.8	21
3	Ath Bilbao	9	6	2	1	+13	+10.8	20
4	Real Madrid	7	6	1	0	+14	+10.7	19
5	Girona	8	6	1	1	+8	+3.1	19
6	Betis	8	5	3	0	+8	+6.2	18
7	Sociedad	9	5	3	1	+7	+0.3	18
8	Getafe	8	5	3	0	+5	+1.6	18
9	Las Palmas	8	4	3	1	+4	-0.9	15
10	Valencia	8	4	2	2	+5	+1.8	14
11	Alaves	8	4	1	3	+0	+5.0	13
12	Sevilla	9	2	4	3	+0	-1.9	10
13	Cadiz	8	2	4	2	-1	+1.6	10
14	Mallorca	8	1	6	1	+0	-1.1	9
15	Osasuna	9	2	3	4	-4	-0.7	9
16	Vallecano	8	1	5	2	-6	-3.6	8
17	Granada	8	1	4	3	-4	-5.0	7
18	Villarreal	9	2	1	6	-5	-0.2	7
19	Celta	9	1	4	4	-6	+3.7	7
20	Almeria	9	0	4	5	-8	-0.1	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Girona	8	7	1	0	+10	+4.6	22
2	Real Madrid	9	6	2	1	+10	+2.1	20
3	Barcelona	8	3	5	0	+3	+10.3	14
4	Sociedad	8	3	3	2	+4	+1.6	12
5	Ath Bilbao	8	3	3	2	+1	+1.1	12
6	Vallecano	9	3	3	3	-1	-1.7	12
7	Ath Madrid	8	3	1	4	+5	-0.1	10
8	Osasuna	8	3	1	4	-3	-4.7	10
9	Las Palmas	9	3	1	5	-3	-5.0	10
10	Villarreal	7	2	3	2	-2	-4.8	9
11	Betis	9	1	6	2	-6	-6.4	9
12	Getafe	9	1	4	4	-4	-4.5	7
13	Celta	8	1	3	4	-3	-4.8	6
14	Mallorca	9	1	3	5	-6	-1.2	6
15	Valencia	9	1	3	5	-9	-4.3	6
16	Cadiz	9	0	4	5	-9	-12.4	4
17	Sevilla	7	0	3	4	-4	-4.1	3
18	Alaves	8	0	3	5	-6	-2.8	3
19	Granada	9	0	1	8	-13	-8.5	1
20	Almeria	8	0	1	7	-14	-5.8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.