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La Liga

Referee: Jesús Gil

Real Madrid

S T S S S

1–1

Full-time

Ath Madrid

T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

0,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 64%

73%

55%

Points per game

2,3

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

59%

32%

Both score Ø 52%

59%

45%

Average goals

2,9

2,2

Scored

2,1

1,4

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,64 xG 0,32

62% Possession 38%

18 Shots 7

7 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Real Madrid 2. · Ath Madrid 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	22	19	2	1	+38	+4.7	59
2	Real Madrid	22	16	3	3	+29	+8.0	51
3	Sociedad	22	13	4	5	+10	+0.5	43
4	Ath Madrid	22	12	5	5	+14	+4.1	41
5	Betis	23	12	4	7	+7	+5.0	40
6	Vallecano	23	9	7	7	+4	+0.8	34
7	Ath Bilbao	22	9	5	8	+8	-0.8	32
8	Villarreal	22	9	4	9	+2	-0.8	31
9	Mallorca	23	9	4	10	-3	-3.7	31
10	Osasuna	22	8	6	8	-2	-4.6	30
11	Girona	22	7	6	9	+0	-0.3	27
12	Espanol	23	6	9	8	-5	+0.7	27
13	Sevilla	22	6	7	9	-6	+2.7	25
14	Cadiz	23	6	7	10	-17	-0.5	25
15	Celta	22	6	6	10	-11	-0.9	24
16	Valladolid	22	7	3	12	-14	-3.7	24
17	Getafe	22	5	7	10	-9	-1.1	22
18	Almeria	22	6	4	12	-13	-0.5	22
19	Valencia	22	5	5	12	-1	-2.8	20
20	Elche	23	1	6	16	-31	-6.6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	11	9	2	0	+23	+3.0	29
2	Real Madrid	10	7	3	0	+15	+6.5	24
3	Girona	12	6	3	3	+6	+2.5	21
4	Ath Bilbao	11	6	2	3	+9	+0.4	20
5	Betis	11	6	2	3	+6	+1.7	20
6	Mallorca	11	6	2	3	+4	+0.4	20
7	Villarreal	10	6	1	3	+6	+1.7	19
8	Almeria	11	6	1	4	+4	+1.0	19
9	Ath Madrid	11	5	3	3	+6	+2.8	18
10	Vallecano	11	5	3	3	+4	-0.1	18
11	Sociedad	11	5	3	3	+1	+0.3	18
12	Osasuna	11	6	0	5	+1	-2.2	18
13	Valladolid	11	5	2	4	+0	+1.0	17
14	Cadiz	12	4	5	3	-3	+2.1	17
15	Sevilla	11	4	3	4	+0	+6.1	15
16	Valencia	11	4	2	5	+6	+0.9	14
17	Celta	11	3	4	4	-1	+0.5	13
18	Getafe	12	3	4	5	-3	-2.0	13
19	Espanol	12	3	4	5	-4	+2.5	13
20	Elche	12	1	3	8	-10	-0.4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	11	10	0	1	+15	+1.7	30
2	Real Madrid	12	9	0	3	+14	+1.4	27
3	Sociedad	11	8	1	2	+9	+0.2	25
4	Ath Madrid	11	7	2	2	+8	+1.3	23
5	Betis	12	6	2	4	+1	+3.3	20
6	Vallecano	12	4	4	4	+0	+0.9	16
7	Espanol	11	3	5	3	-1	-1.8	14
8	Ath Bilbao	11	3	3	5	-1	-1.2	12
9	Osasuna	11	2	6	3	-3	-2.4	12
10	Villarreal	12	3	3	6	-4	-2.5	12
11	Mallorca	12	3	2	7	-7	-4.1	11
12	Celta	11	3	2	6	-10	-1.4	11
13	Sevilla	11	2	4	5	-6	-3.4	10
14	Getafe	10	2	3	5	-6	+0.8	9
15	Cadiz	11	2	2	7	-14	-2.7	8
16	Valladolid	11	2	1	8	-14	-4.8	7
17	Girona	10	1	3	6	-6	-2.8	6
18	Valencia	11	1	3	7	-7	-3.6	6
19	Almeria	11	0	3	8	-17	-1.5	3
20	Elche	11	0	3	8	-21	-6.2	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.