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Copa del Rey

Referee: Adrián Cordero

Ferrol

S T S T T

1–3

Full-time

Vallecano

S S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ferrol Vallecano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Copa del Rey · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

3,5

5,0

Scored

2,5

4,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+3,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

46% Possession 54%

18 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 6

8 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

9 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ferrol 13. · Vallecano 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Celta	2	2	0	0	+11	6
2	Las Palmas	2	2	0	0	+8	6
3	Betis	2	2	0	0	+7	6
4	Osasuna	2	2	0	0	+6	6
5	Vallecano	2	2	0	0	+6	6
6	Barbastro	2	2	0	0	+6	6
7	Sociedad	2	2	0	0	+6	6
8	Valladolid	2	2	0	0	+5	6
9	Sevilla	2	2	0	0	+5	6
10	Ath Madrid	2	2	0	0	+4	6
11	Pontevedra	2	2	0	0	+4	6
12	Elche	2	2	0	0	+4	6
13	Ferrol	2	2	0	0	+3	6
14	Valencia	2	2	0	0	+3	6
15	Huesca	2	2	0	0	+3	6
16	Santander	2	2	0	0	+2	6
17	Almeria	2	2	0	0	+2	6
18	Ourense CF	2	2	0	0	+2	6
19	Marbella	2	2	0	0	+2	6
20	Eldense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
21	Cartagena	2	2	0	0	+2	6
22	Deportiva Minera	2	1	1	0	+5	4
23	Zaragoza	2	1	1	0	+4	4
24	Girona	2	1	1	0	+4	4
25	Getafe	2	1	1	0	+3	4
26	Granada	2	1	1	0	+2	4
27	Tenerife	2	1	1	0	+2	4
28	Estepona	2	1	1	0	+1	4
29	Leganes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
30	Alaves	2	1	1	0	+1	4
31	Castellon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
32	Zamora	2	1	1	0	+1	4
33	Orihuela	2	1	1	0	+1	4
34	UD Logroñés	2	1	1	0	+1	4
35	Yeclano	2	1	0	1	+5	3
36	Villarreal	2	1	0	1	+4	3
37	Unionistas de Salamanca	2	1	0	1	+3	3
38	Burgos	2	1	0	1	+2	3
39	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+2	3
40	Vic	2	1	0	1	+2	3
41	Cadiz	2	1	0	1	+2	3
42	Barakaldo	2	1	0	1	+1	3
43	Cultural Leonesa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
44	Ceuta	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	Europa Fc	2	1	0	1	+0	3
46	Andorra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	Gimnastic	2	1	0	1	+0	3
48	Sp Gijon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
49	Parla Escuela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
50	Conquense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
51	Chiclana	2	1	0	1	-1	3
52	Cacereño	2	1	0	1	-1	3
53	Astur	2	1	0	1	-1	3
54	Manises	2	1	0	1	-1	3
55	Sant Andreu	2	1	0	1	-1	3
56	Ejea	2	1	0	1	-1	3
57	UD San Pedro	2	1	0	1	-2	3
58	Villamuriel	2	1	0	1	-4	3
59	Salamanca UDS	2	1	0	1	-6	3
60	Ponferradina	2	0	2	0	+0	2
61	Cordoba	1	0	1	0	+0	1
62	Selaya	1	0	1	0	+0	1
63	Baztán	1	0	1	0	+0	1
64	Playas Sotavento	1	0	1	0	+0	1
65	Escobedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
66	Oviedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
67	Olot	2	0	1	1	-2	1
68	Real Ávila	2	0	1	1	-2	1
69	San Tirso	2	0	1	1	-4	1
70	Gévora	2	0	1	1	-5	1
71	Ontiñena	2	0	1	1	-7	1
72	Lanzarote	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Malaga	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Langreo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Bergantiños	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Mirandes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	SS Reyes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Don Benito	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Numancia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Eibar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Beasain	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Atlético Paso	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	La Coruna	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Águilas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Sonseca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Aurrerá Vitoria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Alcorcon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Xerez	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-2	0
99	Lleida Esportiu	1	0	0	1	-2	0
100	Dolorense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
101	Cuarte	1	0	0	1	-2	0
102	Alfaro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
103	Badalona	1	0	0	1	-2	0
104	Promesas EDF	1	0	0	1	-2	0
105	Cortes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Llanera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	Móstoles	1	0	0	1	-3	0
108	Levante	1	0	0	1	-3	0
109	CD Coria	1	0	0	1	-3	0
110	Las Rozas	1	0	0	1	-3	0
111	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-3	0
112	L'Hospitalet	1	0	0	1	-4	0
113	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
114	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-4	0
115	Amorebieta	1	0	0	1	-4	0
116	Sporting Mahón	1	0	0	1	-4	0
117	Extremadura 1924	1	0	0	1	-4	0
118	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
119	Tudelano	1	0	0	1	-5	0
120	Jove Español	1	0	0	1	-5	0
121	Laredo	1	0	0	1	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barbastro	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Pontevedra	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Estepona	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	UD Logroñés	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Vic	2	1	0	1	+2	3
6	Santander	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Ourense CF	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Marbella	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Europa Fc	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Conquense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Chiclana	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Cacereño	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Astur	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Sant Andreu	2	1	0	1	-1	3
15	Ejea	2	1	0	1	-1	3
16	UD San Pedro	2	1	0	1	-2	3
17	Villamuriel	2	1	0	1	-4	3
18	Salamanca UDS	2	1	0	1	-6	3
19	Zaragoza	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Deportiva Minera	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Ponferradina	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Baztán	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Zamora	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Orihuela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Escobedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Olot	2	0	1	1	-2	1
27	Real Ávila	2	0	1	1	-2	1
28	San Tirso	2	0	1	1	-4	1
29	Gévora	2	0	1	1	-5	1
30	Lanzarote	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Ceuta	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Unionistas de Salamanca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Cultural Leonesa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Barakaldo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Langreo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Bergantiños	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	SS Reyes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Don Benito	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Cadiz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Numancia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Andorra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Beasain	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Gimnastic	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Atlético Paso	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Yeclano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Águilas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Sonseca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Parla Escuela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Xerez	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Lleida Esportiu	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Dolorense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Cuarte	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Alfaro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Badalona	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Cortes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Llanera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Móstoles	1	0	0	1	-3	0
63	CD Coria	1	0	0	1	-3	0
64	Las Rozas	1	0	0	1	-3	0
65	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-3	0
66	Manises	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	L'Hospitalet	1	0	0	1	-4	0
68	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
69	Extremadura 1924	1	0	0	1	-4	0
70	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
71	Tudelano	1	0	0	1	-5	0
72	Jove Español	1	0	0	1	-5	0
73	Laredo	1	0	0	1	-6	0
74	Ontiñena	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Celta	2	2	0	0	+11	6
2	Las Palmas	2	2	0	0	+8	6
3	Betis	2	2	0	0	+7	6
4	Osasuna	2	2	0	0	+6	6
5	Vallecano	2	2	0	0	+6	6
6	Sociedad	2	2	0	0	+6	6
7	Valladolid	2	2	0	0	+5	6
8	Sevilla	2	2	0	0	+5	6
9	Ath Madrid	2	2	0	0	+4	6
10	Elche	2	2	0	0	+4	6
11	Ferrol	2	2	0	0	+3	6
12	Valencia	2	2	0	0	+3	6
13	Huesca	2	2	0	0	+3	6
14	Almeria	2	2	0	0	+2	6
15	Eldense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
16	Cartagena	2	2	0	0	+2	6
17	Girona	2	1	1	0	+4	4
18	Getafe	2	1	1	0	+3	4
19	Granada	2	1	1	0	+2	4
20	Tenerife	2	1	1	0	+2	4
21	Leganes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
22	Alaves	2	1	1	0	+1	4
23	Castellon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
24	Yeclano	1	1	0	0	+6	3
25	Deportiva Minera	1	1	0	0	+5	3
26	Villarreal	2	1	0	1	+4	3
27	Zaragoza	1	1	0	0	+4	3
28	Unionistas de Salamanca	1	1	0	0	+4	3
29	Cadiz	1	1	0	0	+3	3
30	Burgos	2	1	0	1	+2	3
31	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+2	3
32	Barakaldo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
33	Manises	1	1	0	0	+2	3
34	Cultural Leonesa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
35	Santander	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Ourense CF	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Gimnastic	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Zamora	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Orihuela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Marbella	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Andorra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Parla Escuela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Ceuta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Sp Gijon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	Cordoba	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Selaya	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Ontiñena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Playas Sotavento	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Ponferradina	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Oviedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Malaga	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Mirandes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Eibar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	La Coruna	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Aurrerá Vitoria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Alcorcon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Promesas EDF	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Levante	1	0	0	1	-3	0
64	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-4	0
65	Amorebieta	1	0	0	1	-4	0
66	Sporting Mahón	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.