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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Hernández

Villarreal

U U T T T

1–1

Full-time

Vallecano

T T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Vallecano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 38%

44%

31%

Points per game

1,6

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 72%

81%

63%

Average goals

3,4

2,3

Scored

1,8

1,1

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,32 xG 1,49

45% Possession 55%

14 Shots 18

5 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 8

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 7

0 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 15

4 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 6. · Vallecano 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	18	12	2	4	+30	+19.7	38
2	Ath Madrid	17	11	5	1	+20	+17.1	38
3	Real Madrid	17	11	4	2	+21	+14.7	37
4	Ath Bilbao	18	9	6	3	+11	+7.1	33
5	Mallorca	18	8	3	7	-3	-0.7	27
6	Villarreal	16	7	5	4	+1	+8.2	26
7	Sociedad	17	7	4	6	+5	+4.5	25
8	Osasuna	17	6	7	4	-3	-5.4	25
9	Betis	17	6	6	5	-1	+4.4	24
10	Girona	17	6	4	7	-2	+3.6	22
11	Sevilla	17	6	4	7	-5	-4.5	22
12	Celta	17	6	3	8	-3	+4.9	21
13	Vallecano	16	5	5	6	-1	-0.2	20
14	Las Palmas	17	5	4	8	-5	-15.0	19
15	Leganes	17	4	6	7	-8	-15.3	18
16	Getafe	17	3	7	7	-3	-2.4	16
17	Alaves	17	4	4	9	-9	-5.4	16
18	Espanol	16	4	2	10	-13	-14.0	14
19	Valladolid	17	3	3	11	-22	-13.2	12
20	Valencia	15	2	4	9	-10	-8.0	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	9	7	2	0	+13	+15.8	23
2	Real Madrid	8	7	0	1	+13	+11.6	21
3	Ath Bilbao	10	6	3	1	+9	+4.4	21
4	Osasuna	9	5	3	1	+5	+3.1	18
5	Celta	9	5	2	2	+6	+4.7	17
6	Sevilla	9	5	1	3	+0	+1.6	16
7	Barcelona	7	5	0	2	+13	+13.3	15
8	Betis	8	4	3	1	+4	+9.9	15
9	Mallorca	10	4	3	3	-2	-3.1	15
10	Getafe	9	3	5	1	+4	+5.1	14
11	Girona	8	4	1	3	+2	+5.1	13
12	Espanol	8	4	1	3	+1	-1.7	13
13	Villarreal	8	3	3	2	+1	+3.2	12
14	Alaves	8	3	3	2	+0	-2.0	12
15	Sociedad	9	3	2	4	+0	+3.7	11
16	Leganes	8	3	1	4	-4	-2.4	10
17	Vallecano	8	2	3	3	-1	+4.5	9
18	Las Palmas	8	2	3	3	-1	-4.6	9
19	Valladolid	9	2	3	4	-6	-6.0	9
20	Valencia	7	2	2	3	+1	-0.2	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	11	7	2	2	+17	+6.4	23
2	Real Madrid	9	4	4	1	+8	+3.0	16
3	Ath Madrid	8	4	3	1	+7	+1.3	15
4	Sociedad	8	4	2	2	+5	+0.8	14
5	Villarreal	8	4	2	2	+0	+4.9	14
6	Ath Bilbao	8	3	3	2	+2	+2.7	12
7	Mallorca	8	4	0	4	-1	+2.4	12
8	Vallecano	8	3	2	3	+0	-4.8	11
9	Las Palmas	9	3	1	5	-4	-10.3	10
10	Girona	9	2	3	4	-4	-1.6	9
11	Betis	9	2	3	4	-5	-5.5	9
12	Leganes	9	1	5	3	-4	-12.9	8
13	Osasuna	8	1	4	3	-8	-8.6	7
14	Sevilla	8	1	3	4	-5	-6.1	6
15	Celta	8	1	1	6	-9	+0.2	4
16	Alaves	9	1	1	7	-9	-3.4	4
17	Valladolid	8	1	0	7	-16	-7.2	3
18	Getafe	8	0	2	6	-7	-7.4	2
19	Valencia	8	0	2	6	-11	-7.7	2
20	Espanol	8	0	1	7	-14	-12.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.