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Copa del Rey

Referee: A Fuentes

Guadalajara

S T S

1–0

Full-time

Ceuta

T T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guadalajara Ceuta

Last 6 — all competitions · 3/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Copa del Rey · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

2,0

Conceded

1,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Guadalajara 47. · Ceuta 43. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Alaves	2	2	0	0	+10	6
2	Osasuna	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Huesca	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Palma del Rio	3	2	0	1	+4	6
5	Sant Just	3	2	0	1	+4	6
6	Mallorca	2	2	0	0	+3	6
7	CD Sant Jordi	3	2	0	1	-2	6
8	Puerto de Vega	3	1	1	1	+2	4
9	Maracena	3	1	1	1	-3	4
10	CD Yuncos	3	1	1	1	-3	4
11	Deportivo Getxo	3	1	1	1	-6	4
12	Inter de Valdemoro	3	1	1	1	-9	4
13	Getafe	1	1	0	0	+11	3
14	Betis	1	1	0	0	+6	3
15	Villarreal	1	1	0	0	+6	3
16	Vallecano	1	1	0	0	+5	3
17	Valencia	1	1	0	0	+5	3
18	Andorra	1	1	0	0	+4	3
19	Granada	1	1	0	0	+4	3
20	La Coruna	1	1	0	0	+4	3
21	Elche	1	1	0	0	+4	3
22	Santander	1	1	0	0	+4	3
23	Tenerife	1	1	0	0	+4	3
24	CF Talavera	1	1	0	0	+3	3
25	Leganes	1	1	0	0	+3	3
26	Sevilla	1	1	0	0	+3	3
27	Sociedad	1	1	0	0	+3	3
28	Albacete	1	1	0	0	+3	3
29	Numancia	2	1	0	1	+2	3
30	Ourense CF	1	1	0	0	+2	3
31	Eibar	1	1	0	0	+2	3
32	Ponferradina	1	1	0	0	+2	3
33	Cadiz	1	1	0	0	+2	3
34	Eldense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
35	Extremadura 1924	1	1	0	0	+2	3
36	Malaga	1	1	0	0	+2	3
37	Cultural Leonesa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
38	Zaragoza	1	1	0	0	+2	3
39	Torrent	1	1	0	0	+2	3
40	Atlético Baleares	1	1	0	0	+2	3
41	Almeria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
42	Celta	1	1	0	0	+2	3
43	Ceuta	1	1	0	0	+2	3
44	Levante	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Girona	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	Navalcarnero	1	1	0	0	+1	3
47	Guadalajara	1	1	0	0	+1	3
48	Sabadell	1	1	0	0	+1	3
49	Sant Andreu	1	1	0	0	+1	3
50	Burgos	1	1	0	0	+1	3
51	Espanol	1	1	0	0	+1	3
52	Antoniano	1	1	0	0	+1	3
53	Real Ávila	1	1	0	0	+1	3
54	Sp Gijon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
55	Cieza	1	1	0	0	+1	3
56	Cartagena	1	1	0	0	+1	3
57	SD Negreira	3	1	0	2	+0	3
58	Manises	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Portugalete	2	1	0	1	-2	3
60	Textil Escudo	2	1	0	1	-3	3
61	Los Garres	3	1	0	2	-4	3
62	Real Murcia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
63	Antequera	1	0	1	0	+0	1
64	Quintanar del Rey	1	0	1	0	+0	1
65	Ibiza	1	0	1	0	+0	1
66	Atlético Astorga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
67	Mirandes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
68	Tarazona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
69	UD Ourense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
70	Pontevedra	1	0	1	0	+0	1
71	Reddis	1	0	1	0	+0	1
72	Europa Fc	1	0	1	0	+0	1
73	Langreo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
74	Betis Valladolid	2	0	1	1	-1	1
75	Ebro	2	0	1	1	-2	1
76	Universitario FC	2	0	1	1	-2	1
77	Sporting Ceuta	2	0	1	1	-2	1
78	Ferrol	2	0	1	1	-2	1
79	Campanario	2	0	1	1	-2	1
80	Alberite	2	0	1	1	-4	1
81	Orihuela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Constància	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Mérida AD	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Atlético Tordesillas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Atlètic Lleida	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Castellon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Valladolid	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Caudal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Cordoba	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Puente Genil	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Oviedo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
96	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-2	0
97	UD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-2	0
98	Ucam Murcia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
99	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-2	0
100	Las Palmas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
101	Estepona	1	0	0	1	-2	0
102	Tropezón	1	0	0	1	-2	0
103	Mutilvera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
104	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
105	Gimnastic	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	La Unión Atlético	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	Rayo Majadahonda	1	0	0	1	-3	0
109	Azuaga	1	0	0	1	-3	0
110	Lourdes	2	0	0	2	-3	0
111	Toledo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
112	Arenas Getxo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
113	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
114	San Fernando CD	1	0	0	1	-3	0
115	Valle Egüés	1	0	0	1	-4	0
116	Roda	1	0	0	1	-4	0
117	Sámano	1	0	0	1	-4	0
118	SD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-4	0
119	RSD Alcalá	1	0	0	1	-4	0
120	Atletico Calatayud	2	0	0	2	-6	0
121	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-6	0
122	Atlético Melilla	2	0	0	2	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Numancia	2	1	0	1	+2	3
2	Ourense CF	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Puerto de Vega	2	1	0	1	+2	3
4	Extremadura 1924	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Torrent	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Atlético Baleares	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Manises	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	SD Negreira	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Sant Just	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Navalcarnero	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Guadalajara	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Sant Andreu	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Textil Escudo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Antoniano	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Real Ávila	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Cieza	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Palma del Rio	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	Los Garres	2	1	0	1	-2	3
19	Portugalete	2	1	0	1	-2	3
20	CD Yuncos	2	1	0	1	-3	3
21	Maracena	2	1	0	1	-3	3
22	CD Sant Jordi	2	1	0	1	-4	3
23	Real Murcia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Quintanar del Rey	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Atlético Astorga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Alberite	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Sporting Ceuta	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	UD Ourense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Reddis	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Langreo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Campanario	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Ebro	2	0	1	1	-2	1
33	Deportivo Getxo	2	0	1	1	-7	1
34	Inter de Valdemoro	2	0	1	1	-11	1
35	Orihuela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Constància	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Betis Valladolid	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Atlético Tordesillas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Atlètic Lleida	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Caudal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Puente Genil	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-2	0
44	Universitario FC	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	UD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	Ucam Murcia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Estepona	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Lourdes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Tropezón	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Mutilvera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Ferrol	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	La Unión Atlético	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Rayo Majadahonda	1	0	0	1	-3	0
56	Azuaga	1	0	0	1	-3	0
57	Atletico Calatayud	1	0	0	1	-3	0
58	Toledo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
59	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
60	San Fernando CD	1	0	0	1	-3	0
61	Valle Egüés	1	0	0	1	-4	0
62	Roda	1	0	0	1	-4	0
63	Sámano	1	0	0	1	-4	0
64	SD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-4	0
65	RSD Alcalá	1	0	0	1	-4	0
66	Atlético Melilla	1	0	0	1	-5	0
67	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Alaves	2	2	0	0	+10	6
2	Osasuna	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Huesca	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Mallorca	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Getafe	1	1	0	0	+11	3
6	Betis	1	1	0	0	+6	3
7	Villarreal	1	1	0	0	+6	3
8	Vallecano	1	1	0	0	+5	3
9	Valencia	1	1	0	0	+5	3
10	Palma del Rio	1	1	0	0	+5	3
11	Andorra	1	1	0	0	+4	3
12	Granada	1	1	0	0	+4	3
13	La Coruna	1	1	0	0	+4	3
14	Elche	1	1	0	0	+4	3
15	Santander	1	1	0	0	+4	3
16	Tenerife	1	1	0	0	+4	3
17	CF Talavera	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Leganes	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	Sant Just	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Sevilla	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Sociedad	1	1	0	0	+3	3
22	Albacete	1	1	0	0	+3	3
23	Eibar	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Inter de Valdemoro	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Ponferradina	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Cadiz	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Eldense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Malaga	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	CD Sant Jordi	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Cultural Leonesa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
31	Zaragoza	1	1	0	0	+2	3
32	Almeria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
33	Celta	1	1	0	0	+2	3
34	Ceuta	1	1	0	0	+2	3
35	Levante	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Girona	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Sabadell	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Deportivo Getxo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Burgos	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Espanol	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Sp Gijon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Cartagena	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Antequera	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Ibiza	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Mirandes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Puerto de Vega	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Maracena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Universitario FC	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Tarazona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Pontevedra	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Europa Fc	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Ferrol	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Betis Valladolid	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	CD Yuncos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Mérida AD	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	SD Negreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Castellon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Lourdes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Valladolid	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Cordoba	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Oviedo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Las Palmas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Gimnastic	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Los Garres	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Manises	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Sporting Ceuta	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Campanario	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Arenas Getxo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
73	Atletico Calatayud	1	0	0	1	-3	0
74	Alberite	1	0	0	1	-4	0
75	Textil Escudo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
76	Atlético Melilla	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.