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Coppa Italia

Referee: M Mariani

Milan

T S S S S

0–1

Full-time

Bologna

S S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Bologna

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

2,3

0,8

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Coppa Italia · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 88%

75%

100%

Points per game

2,5

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

75%

Both score Ø 50%

75%

25%

Average goals

4,0

2,8

Scored

3,3

2,5

Conceded

0,8

0,3

Goal diff per game

+2,5

+2,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

46% Possession 54%

11 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 2. · Bologna 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bologna	4	4	0	0	+9	12
2	Milan	4	3	1	0	+10	10
3	Cesena	4	3	0	1	-1	9
4	Empoli	6	2	2	2	+0	8
5	Inter	4	2	1	1	+1	7
6	Udinese	3	2	0	1	+4	6
7	Cagliari	3	2	0	1	-1	6
8	Sassuolo	3	2	0	1	-2	6
9	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+4	4
10	Napoli	3	1	1	1	+3	4
11	Genoa	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Monza	3	1	1	1	-2	4
13	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+4	3
14	Pisa	2	1	0	1	+2	3
15	Roma	2	1	0	1	+1	3
16	Torino	2	1	0	1	+1	3
17	Brescia	2	1	0	1	+0	3
18	Lazio	2	1	0	1	+0	3
19	Mantova	2	1	0	1	+0	3
20	Carrarese	2	1	0	1	-1	3
21	Lecce	2	1	0	1	-1	3
22	Avellino	2	1	0	1	-2	3
23	Palermo	2	1	0	1	-4	3
24	Sampdoria	3	0	2	1	-3	2
25	Spezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Fiorentina	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Como	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Bari	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Modena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Sudtirol	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Cremonese	2	0	1	1	-1	1
32	Salernitana	2	0	1	1	-2	1
33	Cittadella	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Verona	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Catania	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Torres	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Parma	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Reggiana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Venezia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
40	Padova	1	0	0	1	-2	0
41	Juve Stabia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
42	Cosenza	1	0	0	1	-2	0
43	Catanzaro	1	0	0	1	-3	0
44	Frosinone	1	0	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	3	2	1	0	+7	7
2	Udinese	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Bologna	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Cagliari	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Inter	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Napoli	2	1	1	0	+5	4
7	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+4	4
8	Monza	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Genoa	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+4	3
11	Roma	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Brescia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Lazio	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Cesena	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Avellino	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Torino	2	1	0	1	+1	3
17	Sassuolo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Carrarese	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Empoli	2	1	0	1	+0	3
20	Lecce	2	1	0	1	-1	3
21	Salernitana	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Fiorentina	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Sampdoria	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Cremonese	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Verona	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Torres	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Parma	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Pisa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Frosinone	1	0	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bologna	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Cesena	3	2	0	1	-3	6
3	Empoli	4	1	2	1	+0	5
4	Milan	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Pisa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Mantova	2	1	0	1	+0	3
7	Sassuolo	2	1	0	1	-3	3
8	Palermo	2	1	0	1	-4	3
9	Spezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Inter	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Como	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Bari	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Modena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Sudtirol	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Sampdoria	2	0	1	1	-3	1
16	Cittadella	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Catania	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Cremonese	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Reggiana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Salernitana	1	0	0	1	-2	0
21	Roma	1	0	0	1	-2	0
22	Carrarese	1	0	0	1	-2	0
23	Venezia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	Napoli	1	0	0	1	-2	0
25	Brescia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
26	Padova	1	0	0	1	-2	0
27	Juve Stabia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
28	Cosenza	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	Udinese	1	0	0	1	-2	0
30	Lazio	1	0	0	1	-2	0
31	Catanzaro	1	0	0	1	-3	0
32	Cagliari	1	0	0	1	-4	0
33	Avellino	1	0	0	1	-4	0
34	Monza	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.