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La Liga

Referee: Gil Manzano

Alaves

T U S U T

1–0

Full-time

Valencia

S U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alaves Valencia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,0

2,7

Scored

0,5

1,8

Conceded

0,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 27%

23%

31%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

40%

49%

Both score Ø 55%

49%

60%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,81 xG 0,61

42% Possession 58%

11 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Alaves 17. · Valencia 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	35	26	4	5	+59	+46.2	82
2	Real Madrid	35	23	6	6	+35	+26.3	75
3	Ath Madrid	35	20	10	5	+33	+25.2	70
4	Ath Bilbao	35	17	13	5	+25	+15.9	64
5	Villarreal	35	17	10	8	+14	+20.2	61
6	Betis	35	16	10	9	+10	+8.8	58
7	Celta	36	15	7	14	+2	+9.6	52
8	Vallecano	35	12	11	12	-5	-3.7	47
9	Mallorca	35	13	8	14	-7	-3.8	47
10	Valencia	35	11	12	12	-8	-6.3	45
11	Osasuna	35	10	15	10	-8	-7.8	45
12	Sociedad	36	12	7	17	-10	+1.2	43
13	Sevilla	36	10	11	15	-9	-4.2	41
14	Girona	36	11	8	17	-11	-4.8	41
15	Getafe	35	10	9	16	-3	-7.6	39
16	Espanol	35	10	9	16	-9	-21.9	39
17	Alaves	35	8	11	16	-12	-4.4	35
18	Leganes	35	7	13	15	-18	-26.4	34
19	Las Palmas	36	8	8	20	-18	-29.9	32
20	Valladolid	36	4	4	28	-60	-32.4	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	18	14	1	3	+33	+34.7	43
2	Ath Madrid	18	13	4	1	+24	+23.3	43
3	Real Madrid	17	14	1	2	+23	+23.8	43
4	Ath Bilbao	18	11	6	1	+22	+14.3	39
5	Celta	18	11	3	4	+12	+7.5	36
6	Betis	18	9	6	3	+11	+14.2	33
7	Valencia	18	9	4	5	+7	+5.7	31
8	Osasuna	17	8	6	3	+6	+3.0	30
9	Villarreal	17	7	7	3	+11	+11.7	28
10	Espanol	17	7	6	4	+3	-5.7	27
11	Mallorca	18	7	6	5	+0	-1.1	27
12	Girona	18	7	3	8	+1	+5.0	24
13	Sociedad	18	7	3	8	-1	+5.8	24
14	Vallecano	17	6	6	5	-2	+5.1	24
15	Sevilla	18	6	6	6	-4	+1.5	24
16	Leganes	18	6	4	8	-7	-9.8	22
17	Alaves	17	5	5	7	-4	+0.2	20
18	Getafe	17	4	7	6	-1	+3.3	19
19	Las Palmas	18	4	5	9	-7	-7.2	17
20	Valladolid	18	3	4	11	-20	-10.8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	12	3	2	+26	+11.5	39
2	Villarreal	18	10	3	5	+3	+8.5	33
3	Real Madrid	18	9	5	4	+12	+2.5	32
4	Ath Madrid	17	7	6	4	+9	+1.9	27
5	Ath Bilbao	17	6	7	4	+3	+1.6	25
6	Betis	17	7	4	6	-1	-5.4	25
7	Vallecano	18	6	5	7	-3	-8.8	23
8	Getafe	18	6	2	10	-2	-10.9	20
9	Mallorca	17	6	2	9	-7	-2.7	20
10	Sociedad	18	5	4	9	-9	-4.6	19
11	Sevilla	18	4	5	9	-5	-5.7	17
12	Girona	18	4	5	9	-12	-9.8	17
13	Celta	18	4	4	10	-10	+2.1	16
14	Alaves	18	3	6	9	-8	-4.6	15
15	Las Palmas	18	4	3	11	-11	-22.7	15
16	Osasuna	18	2	9	7	-14	-10.8	15
17	Valencia	17	2	8	7	-15	-12.0	14
18	Leganes	17	1	9	7	-11	-16.5	12
19	Espanol	18	3	3	12	-12	-16.2	12
20	Valladolid	18	1	0	17	-40	-21.6	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.