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Serie A

Referee: D Massa

Milan

S S T S S

2–2

Full-time

Bologna

S T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Bologna

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,0

Scored

2,5

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 21/20 matches

Win Ø 54%

67%

40%

Points per game

2,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

62%

40%

Both score Ø 51%

52%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,1

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

1,1

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

3,28 xG 1,84

50% Possession 50%

14 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 7

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 12

5 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 3. · Bologna 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	22	16	5	1	+23	+19.6	53
2	Inter	20	16	3	1	+39	+28.8	51
3	Milan	21	14	3	4	+18	+7.1	45
4	Atalanta	21	11	3	7	+16	+8.2	36
5	Fiorentina	20	10	4	6	+8	-1.1	34
6	Lazio	20	10	3	7	+4	+4.0	33
7	Roma	21	9	5	7	+9	+8.5	32
8	Bologna	20	8	8	4	+5	+5.4	32
9	Napoli	20	9	4	7	+5	+13.3	31
10	Torino	21	8	7	6	+1	+0.3	31
11	Genoa	21	6	7	8	-3	-2.7	25
12	Monza	21	6	7	8	-8	-9.4	25
13	Frosinone	21	6	4	11	-12	-8.2	22
14	Lecce	21	4	9	8	-9	-11.7	21
15	Sassuolo	20	5	4	11	-10	-8.1	19
16	Udinese	22	2	12	8	-14	-6.6	18
17	Cagliari	22	4	6	12	-17	-6.9	18
18	Verona	21	4	5	12	-10	-7.8	17
19	Empoli	22	4	5	13	-21	-10.4	17
20	Salernitana	21	2	6	13	-24	-22.4	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	11	8	3	0	+12	+10.8	27
2	Inter	10	8	1	1	+19	+15.8	25
3	Atalanta	11	8	1	2	+17	+8.2	25
4	Roma	11	7	3	1	+15	+7.5	24
5	Milan	10	8	0	2	+13	+4.8	24
6	Bologna	10	7	2	1	+9	+3.6	23
7	Fiorentina	10	6	2	2	+7	+1.2	20
8	Lazio	10	6	2	2	+5	+4.9	20
9	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+4	-0.2	20
10	Torino	10	5	4	1	+6	+4.9	19
11	Lecce	11	4	4	3	-3	-2.4	16
12	Cagliari	11	4	3	4	-4	+3.6	15
13	Genoa	10	3	5	2	+1	-1.4	14
14	Napoli	10	4	2	4	+0	+7.8	14
15	Monza	10	3	4	3	+0	-3.1	13
16	Verona	10	3	3	4	-2	-1.7	12
17	Sassuolo	10	3	2	5	-2	-1.2	11
18	Udinese	11	1	6	4	-4	+0.3	9
19	Empoli	11	2	2	7	-9	-3.8	8
20	Salernitana	11	1	4	6	-11	-8.2	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	10	8	2	0	+20	+13.1	26
2	Juventus	11	8	2	1	+11	+8.9	26
3	Milan	11	6	3	2	+5	+2.2	21
4	Napoli	10	5	2	3	+5	+5.4	17
5	Fiorentina	10	4	2	4	+1	-2.2	14
6	Lazio	10	4	1	5	-1	-0.9	13
7	Torino	11	3	3	5	-5	-4.6	12
8	Monza	11	3	3	5	-8	-6.2	12
9	Atalanta	10	3	2	5	-1	+0.0	11
10	Genoa	11	3	2	6	-4	-1.3	11
11	Bologna	10	1	6	3	-4	+1.8	9
12	Udinese	11	1	6	4	-10	-7.0	9
13	Empoli	11	2	3	6	-12	-6.6	9
14	Roma	10	2	2	6	-6	+1.0	8
15	Sassuolo	10	2	2	6	-8	-6.9	8
16	Lecce	10	0	5	5	-6	-9.3	5
17	Verona	11	1	2	8	-8	-6.1	5
18	Salernitana	10	1	2	7	-13	-14.1	5
19	Cagliari	11	0	3	8	-13	-10.6	3
20	Frosinone	10	0	2	8	-16	-8.0	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.