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Eredivisie

Referee: S van der Eijk

AZ Alkmaar

U T U U U

1–3

Full-time

Waalwijk

T T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Waalwijk

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

This season — Eredivisie · 29/33 matches

Win Ø 38%

52%

24%

Points per game

1,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

72%

48%

Both score Ø 68%

72%

64%

Average goals

3,2

2,6

Scored

1,9

1,1

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

66% Possession 34%

14 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 2

3 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 5. · Waalwijk 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	33	26	4	3	+79	82
2	PSV Eindhoven	33	25	3	5	+43	78
3	Feyenoord	33	22	5	6	+43	71
4	Twente	33	19	8	6	+17	65
5	AZ Alkmaar	29	15	6	8	+17	51
6	Utrecht	31	12	10	9	+9	46
7	Vitesse	29	14	3	12	-8	45
8	Heerenveen	31	10	8	13	-12	38
9	Nijmegen	33	10	8	15	-13	38
10	Go Ahead Eagles	33	10	6	17	-12	36
11	Groningen	33	9	9	15	-13	36
12	Cambuur	33	10	6	17	-18	36
13	Waalwijk	33	8	11	14	-13	35
14	Heracles	33	9	7	17	-14	34
15	Sparta Rotterdam	33	7	11	15	-20	32
16	For Sittard	33	9	5	19	-32	32
17	Willem II	33	8	6	19	-28	30
18	Zwolle	33	7	6	20	-25	27

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	17	14	1	2	+54	43
2	PSV Eindhoven	17	14	0	3	+27	42
3	Feyenoord	16	11	3	2	+23	36
4	Twente	17	10	5	2	+15	35
5	AZ Alkmaar	14	9	3	2	+15	30
6	Utrecht	16	8	5	3	+12	29
7	Heracles	16	7	5	4	+3	26
8	Go Ahead Eagles	17	7	1	9	+1	22
9	Willem II	16	6	3	7	-5	21
10	Waalwijk	17	6	3	8	-8	21
11	For Sittard	17	6	2	9	-11	20
12	Sparta Rotterdam	17	4	7	6	-5	19
13	Groningen	16	4	6	6	-2	18
14	Heerenveen	15	5	3	7	-3	18
15	Cambuur	17	5	3	9	-6	18
16	Vitesse	14	5	1	8	-10	16
17	Zwolle	16	3	5	8	-6	14
18	Nijmegen	16	3	5	8	-8	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	16	12	3	1	+25	39
2	PSV Eindhoven	16	11	3	2	+16	36
3	Feyenoord	17	11	2	4	+20	35
4	Twente	16	9	3	4	+2	30
5	Vitesse	15	9	2	4	+2	29
6	Nijmegen	17	7	3	7	-5	24
7	AZ Alkmaar	15	6	3	6	+2	21
8	Heerenveen	16	5	5	6	-9	20
9	Groningen	17	5	3	9	-11	18
10	Cambuur	16	5	3	8	-12	18
11	Utrecht	15	4	5	6	-3	17
12	Waalwijk	16	2	8	6	-5	14
13	Go Ahead Eagles	16	3	5	8	-13	14
14	Sparta Rotterdam	16	3	4	9	-15	13
15	Zwolle	17	4	1	12	-19	13
16	For Sittard	16	3	3	10	-21	12
17	Willem II	17	2	3	12	-23	9
18	Heracles	17	2	2	13	-17	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.