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Championship

Referee: Edward Duckworth

Swansea

S T S U S

2–0

Full-time

Watford

S S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

0,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

0,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

60% Possession 40%

18 Shots 9

8 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 3

1 Offside 4

6 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 3. · Watford 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Charlton	3	3	0	0	+3	-2.8	9
2	Wolves	3	2	1	0	+5	+3.9	7
3	Swansea	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.4	7
4	QPR	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.0	7
5	Southampton	3	2	0	1	+5	+4.6	6
6	Middlesbrough	3	2	0	1	+2	+3.4	6
7	West Brom	3	2	0	1	+1	-1.9	6
8	Millwall	3	2	0	1	+1	+2.3	6
9	Birmingham	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.2	5
10	Watford	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.5	5
11	Blackburn	3	1	1	1	+0	-2.2	4
12	Bolton	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.1	4
13	Bristol City	3	1	1	1	-1	-4.2	4
14	Cardiff	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.8	3
15	Sheffield United	3	0	3	0	+0	-0.5	3
16	Norwich	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.4	3
17	Portsmouth	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.2	3
18	Lincoln	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.1	3
19	West Ham	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.5	2
20	Wrexham	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.6	2
21	Derby	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.6	1
22	Burnley	3	0	1	2	-5	-0.4	1
23	Preston	3	0	0	3	-4	-0.3	0
24	Stoke	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Southampton	2	2	0	0	+6	+3.7	6
2	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.9	6
3	Charlton	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.6	6
4	Wolves	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.1	4
5	Watford	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.2	4
6	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.7	3
7	Norwich	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.0	3
8	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.4	3
9	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.9	3
10	Bolton	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
11	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	-1	-3.6	3
12	Cardiff	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.4	2
13	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
14	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
15	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
16	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.6	1
17	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
18	Wrexham	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.1	1
19	Derby	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.7	1
20	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	+2.2	0
21	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
22	Preston	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
23	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
24	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-2	+1.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Swansea	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
2	QPR	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.3	6
3	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
4	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
5	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.3	3
6	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	-2.2	3
7	Lincoln	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.2	3
8	West Brom	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.3	3
9	Millwall	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.6	3
10	West Ham	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.7	2
11	Sheffield United	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.1	2
12	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
13	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
14	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
15	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
16	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
17	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.6	1
18	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
19	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.5	0
20	Derby	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
21	Preston	2	0	0	2	-2	+0.6	0
22	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.7	0
23	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.4	0
24	Stoke	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.