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Championship

Referee: Robert Madley

Watford

T S S U T

1–1

Full-time

West Ham

S S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford West Ham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,7

3,8

Scored

1,0

2,3

Conceded

2,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

2,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,60 xG 0,89

38% Possession 62%

16 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 7

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 11

1 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 10. · West Ham 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Wolves	3	2	1	0	+5	+3.9	7
2	Swansea	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.4	7
3	Millwall	2	2	0	0	+5	+4.5	6
4	Middlesbrough	3	2	0	1	+2	+3.4	6
5	Charlton	2	2	0	0	+2	-2.2	6
6	West Brom	3	2	0	1	+1	-1.9	6
7	Birmingham	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.2	5
8	QPR	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.5	4
9	Blackburn	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.7	4
10	Watford	2	1	1	0	+1	-2.2	4
11	Bolton	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.7	4
12	Southampton	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.3	3
13	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.0	3
14	Cardiff	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
15	Sheffield United	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.4	2
16	Wrexham	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.6	2
17	West Ham	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.2	1
18	Burnley	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.5	1
19	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-2	-3.4	1
20	Derby	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.6	1
21	Lincoln	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.6	0
22	Preston	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.9	0
23	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.6	0
24	Stoke	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.9	6
2	Wolves	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.1	4
3	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.7	3
4	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.4	3
5	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.4	3
6	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.9	3
7	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.5	3
8	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
9	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
10	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
11	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
12	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
13	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
14	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.6	1
15	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
16	Wrexham	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.1	1
17	Derby	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.7	1
18	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.1	0
19	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	+2.2	0
20	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
21	Preston	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
22	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
23	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-2	+1.1	0
24	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Swansea	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
2	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
3	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
4	QPR	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.1	3
5	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+2	-1.1	3
6	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.9	3
7	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	-2.2	3
8	West Brom	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.3	3
9	West Ham	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.0	1
10	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
11	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
12	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
13	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
14	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
15	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.6	1
16	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
17	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
18	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.7	0
19	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.5	0
20	Derby	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
21	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
22	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.4	0
23	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.7	0
24	Stoke	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.