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Championship

Referee: M Corlett

Watford

S T T U U

0–2

Full-time

Swansea

T U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 28/29 matches

Win Ø 37%

39%

34%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

50%

48%

Both score Ø 64%

68%

59%

Average goals

2,6

2,4

Scored

1,4

1,1

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,91 xG 2,64

56% Possession 44%

17 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 8

1 Offside 5

10 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 8. · Swansea 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	29	17	7	5	+29	+23.0	58
2	Ipswich	28	14	8	6	+21	+22.5	50
3	Millwall	28	14	7	7	+3	+5.2	49
4	Middlesbrough	26	14	6	6	+10	+9.4	48
5	Hull	26	14	5	7	+8	-13.7	47
6	Wrexham	30	12	11	7	+7	-3.5	47
7	Derby	30	12	9	9	+7	-3.5	45
8	Watford	28	11	10	7	+6	+7.0	43
9	Bristol City	30	12	7	11	+4	-0.5	43
10	Preston	29	11	10	8	+3	-7.3	43
11	Stoke	30	12	6	12	+6	-6.8	42
12	QPR	29	11	7	11	-2	+1.6	40
13	Southampton	28	10	9	9	+6	+12.1	39
14	Birmingham	29	10	9	10	+1	+13.6	39
15	Leicester	30	10	8	12	-5	-11.0	38
16	Swansea	29	10	6	13	-5	-7.6	36
17	Sheffield United	28	11	2	15	-2	+11.8	35
18	Charlton	29	9	8	12	-9	-13.6	35
19	Norwich	29	9	6	14	-4	-10.3	33
20	West Brom	29	9	5	15	-12	+6.3	32
21	Portsmouth	27	7	9	11	-13	-6.1	30
22	Blackburn	28	7	8	13	-11	+4.6	29
23	Oxford	28	6	9	13	-9	-5.0	27
24	Sheffield Weds	29	1	8	20	-39	-28.4	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	14	11	2	1	+20	+12.1	35
2	Ipswich	15	10	4	1	+18	+18.5	34
3	Watford	15	8	5	2	+9	+7.1	29
4	Millwall	14	9	2	3	+6	+8.1	29
5	Birmingham	14	7	6	1	+14	+16.2	27
6	Middlesbrough	13	8	3	2	+9	+4.0	27
7	Hull	13	8	2	3	+4	-3.4	26
8	Swansea	15	7	4	4	+2	-1.6	25
9	Bristol City	16	7	3	6	+5	+0.3	24
10	Wrexham	15	6	6	3	+4	+5.8	24
11	QPR	14	7	2	5	+6	+8.0	23
12	Preston	15	6	5	4	+3	-0.8	23
13	Southampton	13	6	4	3	+6	+9.1	22
14	Leicester	15	6	4	5	+1	+0.7	22
15	West Brom	14	6	4	4	-1	+8.4	22
16	Stoke	15	6	3	6	+5	-0.6	21
17	Charlton	13	6	3	4	+1	-2.7	21
18	Sheffield United	13	6	2	5	+7	+11.4	20
19	Portsmouth	14	5	4	5	+0	+2.0	19
20	Derby	15	4	6	5	-3	-0.6	18
21	Oxford	14	3	6	5	-4	+1.1	15
22	Norwich	14	4	1	9	-6	-1.7	13
23	Blackburn	14	2	5	7	-7	+4.2	11
24	Sheffield Weds	16	0	4	12	-26	-14.2	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Derby	15	8	3	4	+10	-2.8	27
2	Coventry	15	6	5	4	+9	+10.9	23
3	Wrexham	15	6	5	4	+3	-9.3	23
4	Hull	13	6	3	4	+4	-10.3	21
5	Middlesbrough	13	6	3	4	+1	+5.3	21
6	Stoke	15	6	3	6	+1	-6.2	21
7	Norwich	15	5	5	5	+2	-8.6	20
8	Preston	14	5	5	4	+0	-6.5	20
9	Millwall	14	5	5	4	-3	-2.9	20
10	Bristol City	14	5	4	5	-1	-0.8	19
11	Blackburn	14	5	3	6	-4	+0.4	18
12	Southampton	15	4	5	6	+0	+3.0	17
13	QPR	15	4	5	6	-8	-6.3	17
14	Ipswich	13	4	4	5	+3	+4.1	16
15	Leicester	15	4	4	7	-6	-11.7	16
16	Sheffield United	15	5	0	10	-9	+0.4	15
17	Watford	13	3	5	5	-3	-0.0	14
18	Charlton	16	3	5	8	-10	-11.0	14
19	Oxford	14	3	3	8	-5	-6.1	12
20	Birmingham	15	3	3	9	-13	-2.6	12
21	Swansea	14	3	2	9	-7	-5.9	11
22	Portsmouth	13	2	5	6	-13	-8.1	11
23	West Brom	15	3	1	11	-11	-2.1	10
24	Sheffield Weds	13	1	4	8	-13	-14.2	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.