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Premiership

Referee: N Walsh

Hearts

U S S S U

3–0

Full-time

Falkirk

S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hearts Falkirk

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

2,8

4,3

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

1,0

2,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premiership · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 52%

64%

39%

Points per game

2,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

50%

56%

Both score Ø 50%

47%

53%

Average goals

2,6

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

0,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

0,59 xG 0,30

66% Possession 34%

12 Shots 4

4 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

6 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hearts 1. · Falkirk 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	36	23	8	5	+32	+14.2	77
2	Celtic	36	24	4	8	+29	+24.0	76
3	Rangers	36	19	12	5	+31	+21.1	69
4	Motherwell	36	15	13	8	+23	+8.8	58
5	Hibernian	36	14	12	10	+14	+0.7	54
6	Falkirk	36	14	7	15	-6	+3.3	49
7	Dundee United	37	10	14	13	-11	-11.6	44
8	Aberdeen	37	11	7	19	-14	-14.6	40
9	Dundee	37	10	9	18	-20	-14.4	39
10	Kilmarnock	37	9	10	18	-21	-11.1	37
11	St Mirren	37	8	9	20	-25	-2.8	33
12	Livingston	37	2	15	20	-32	-17.6	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	18	14	4	0	+23	+7.8	46
2	Celtic	18	14	1	3	+26	+15.8	43
3	Rangers	18	11	5	2	+19	+16.1	38
4	Motherwell	18	10	6	2	+20	+11.4	36
5	Hibernian	18	8	6	4	+14	+5.4	30
6	Dundee	18	8	4	6	+2	-6.3	28
7	Dundee United	19	7	7	5	+2	-2.4	28
8	Aberdeen	19	7	5	7	+5	-4.8	26
9	Falkirk	19	7	5	7	+2	+5.7	26
10	Kilmarnock	19	7	4	8	+0	+2.5	25
11	St Mirren	18	5	5	8	-11	+1.4	20
12	Livingston	17	1	8	8	-9	-5.6	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Celtic	18	10	3	5	+3	+8.1	33
2	Rangers	18	8	7	3	+12	+5.0	31
3	Hearts	18	9	4	5	+9	+6.5	31
4	Hibernian	18	6	6	6	+0	-4.7	24
5	Falkirk	17	7	2	8	-8	-2.4	23
6	Motherwell	18	5	7	6	+3	-2.7	22
7	Dundee United	18	3	7	8	-13	-9.1	16
8	Aberdeen	18	4	2	12	-19	-9.8	14
9	St Mirren	19	3	4	12	-14	-4.2	13
10	Kilmarnock	18	2	6	10	-21	-13.5	12
11	Dundee	19	2	5	12	-22	-8.0	11
12	Livingston	20	1	7	12	-23	-12.0	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.