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Premiership

Referee: D Nicolson

Motherwell

S S T T U

2–3

Full-time

Falkirk

T T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Motherwell Falkirk

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premiership · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 42%

45%

39%

Points per game

1,7

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

35%

52%

Both score Ø 45%

42%

48%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,6

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,31 xG 1,92

62% Possession 38%

14 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 2

0 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Motherwell 4. · Falkirk 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	31	20	6	5	+28	+12.7	66
2	Rangers	31	17	12	2	+30	+15.0	63
3	Celtic	31	19	4	8	+22	+18.0	61
4	Motherwell	31	14	12	5	+26	+12.2	54
5	Hibernian	31	12	12	7	+13	+4.0	48
6	Falkirk	31	12	7	12	-1	+4.9	43
7	Dundee United	31	8	13	10	-8	-9.5	37
8	Dundee	31	8	8	15	-18	-7.8	32
9	Aberdeen	31	8	6	17	-15	-15.5	30
10	St Mirren	31	6	9	16	-22	-3.7	27
11	Kilmarnock	31	6	9	16	-25	-13.4	27
12	Livingston	31	1	12	18	-30	-17.0	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	16	12	4	0	+20	+8.1	40
2	Motherwell	16	10	5	1	+21	+12.7	35
3	Rangers	16	10	5	1	+18	+12.0	35
4	Celtic	15	11	1	3	+21	+14.6	34
5	Hibernian	15	7	6	2	+13	+7.6	27
6	Falkirk	16	6	5	5	+6	+7.5	23
7	Dundee	15	6	4	5	-1	-4.4	22
8	Dundee United	16	5	6	5	-2	-4.3	21
9	Kilmarnock	16	5	3	8	-5	-0.9	18
10	Aberdeen	15	4	5	6	+2	-6.9	17
11	St Mirren	15	4	5	6	-8	+0.9	17
12	Livingston	15	1	6	8	-9	-6.6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rangers	15	7	7	1	+12	+3.0	28
2	Celtic	16	8	3	5	+1	+3.3	27
3	Hearts	15	8	2	5	+8	+4.6	26
4	Hibernian	16	5	6	5	+0	-3.5	21
5	Falkirk	15	6	2	7	-7	-2.6	20
6	Motherwell	15	4	7	4	+5	-0.5	19
7	Dundee United	15	3	7	5	-6	-5.2	16
8	Aberdeen	16	4	1	11	-17	-8.6	13
9	St Mirren	16	2	4	10	-14	-4.5	10
10	Dundee	16	2	4	10	-17	-3.4	10
11	Kilmarnock	15	1	6	8	-20	-12.5	9
12	Livingston	16	0	6	10	-21	-10.4	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.