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Premiership

Referee: M MacDermid

Hearts

S S T S U

3–1

Full-time

Motherwell

S T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hearts Motherwell

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premiership · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 54%

63%

44%

Points per game

2,1

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

47%

38%

Both score Ø 43%

41%

44%

Average goals

2,6

2,4

Scored

1,7

1,6

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,74 xG 2,01

47% Possession 53%

12 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hearts 1. · Motherwell 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	32	20	7	5	+28	+12.6	67
2	Rangers	32	18	12	2	+32	+17.5	66
3	Celtic	32	20	4	8	+23	+20.4	64
4	Motherwell	32	14	12	6	+25	+11.6	54
5	Hibernian	32	13	12	7	+16	+5.6	51
6	Falkirk	32	13	7	12	+0	+5.5	46
7	Dundee United	32	8	13	11	-10	-11.9	37
8	Dundee	32	8	8	16	-19	-10.2	32
9	Aberdeen	32	8	6	18	-17	-15.8	30
10	St Mirren	32	7	9	16	-20	-3.3	30
11	Kilmarnock	32	6	9	17	-28	-14.9	27
12	Livingston	32	1	13	18	-30	-16.9	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	16	12	4	0	+20	+8.1	40
2	Rangers	17	11	5	1	+20	+14.4	38
3	Motherwell	17	10	5	2	+20	+12.1	35
4	Celtic	15	11	1	3	+21	+14.6	34
5	Hibernian	16	8	6	2	+16	+9.1	30
6	Falkirk	16	6	5	5	+6	+7.5	23
7	Dundee	16	6	4	6	-2	-6.8	22
8	Dundee United	16	5	6	5	-2	-4.3	21
9	St Mirren	16	5	5	6	-6	+1.2	20
10	Kilmarnock	16	5	3	8	-5	-0.9	18
11	Aberdeen	15	4	5	6	+2	-6.9	17
12	Livingston	16	1	7	8	-9	-6.5	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Celtic	17	9	3	5	+2	+5.7	30
2	Rangers	15	7	7	1	+12	+3.0	28
3	Hearts	16	8	3	5	+8	+4.5	27
4	Falkirk	16	7	2	7	-6	-2.0	23
5	Hibernian	16	5	6	5	+0	-3.5	21
6	Motherwell	15	4	7	4	+5	-0.5	19
7	Dundee United	16	3	7	6	-8	-7.7	16
8	Aberdeen	17	4	1	12	-19	-8.9	13
9	St Mirren	16	2	4	10	-14	-4.5	10
10	Dundee	16	2	4	10	-17	-3.4	10
11	Kilmarnock	16	1	6	9	-23	-14.0	9
12	Livingston	16	0	6	10	-21	-10.4	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.