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Super League

Referee: A Kanagasingam

Lugano

U S S T S

4–2

Full-time

Winterthur

U S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano Winterthur

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,8

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

0,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 46%

54%

37%

Points per game

1,8

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

60%

69%

Both score Ø 66%

51%

80%

Average goals

3,1

3,4

Scored

1,8

1,6

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,47 xG 2,67

60% Possession 40%

20 Shots 19

9 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lugano 2. · Winterthur 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Young Boys	35	20	8	7	+36	+5.2	68
2	Lugano	35	19	5	11	+17	+11.4	62
3	Servette	36	17	10	9	+15	+29.0	61
4	St. Gallen	35	15	9	11	+10	+14.0	54
5	Zurich	36	14	12	10	+10	+0.3	54
6	Luzern	36	13	10	13	-3	+1.7	49
7	Winterthur	35	13	10	12	-4	-7.0	49
8	Basel	36	12	9	15	-8	-3.9	45
9	Yverdon	36	12	7	17	-23	-18.4	43
10	Lausanne	36	10	11	15	-9	+1.4	41
11	Grasshoppers	36	10	7	19	-7	-11.4	37
12	Lausanne Ouchy	36	6	8	22	-34	-22.2	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Young Boys	17	13	2	2	+32	+7.6	41
2	St. Gallen	18	11	4	3	+16	+9.2	37
3	Servette	18	11	4	3	+15	+19.7	37
4	Yverdon	18	11	4	3	+8	-4.6	37
5	Luzern	18	9	5	4	+6	+2.9	32
6	Zurich	18	8	7	3	+7	-0.3	31
7	Winterthur	18	9	4	5	+2	+0.7	31
8	Lugano	17	9	3	5	+9	+9.7	30
9	Grasshoppers	18	8	3	7	+8	-3.4	27
10	Lausanne	18	7	6	5	+5	+7.0	27
11	Basel	18	7	5	6	+3	-0.2	26
12	Lausanne Ouchy	18	3	6	9	-17	-7.8	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lugano	18	10	2	6	+8	+1.6	32
2	Young Boys	18	7	6	5	+4	-2.4	27
3	Servette	18	6	6	6	+0	+9.2	24
4	Zurich	18	6	5	7	+3	+0.6	23
5	Basel	18	5	4	9	-11	-3.7	19
6	Winterthur	17	4	6	7	-6	-7.7	18
7	St. Gallen	17	4	5	8	-6	+4.9	17
8	Luzern	18	4	5	9	-9	-1.2	17
9	Lausanne	18	3	5	10	-14	-5.6	14
10	Lausanne Ouchy	18	3	2	13	-17	-14.5	11
11	Grasshoppers	18	2	4	12	-15	-8.0	10
12	Yverdon	18	1	3	14	-31	-13.8	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.