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Super League

Referee: S Wolfensberger

Lugano

T S T S T

2–1

Full-time

Winterthur

S U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano Winterthur

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

3,7

4,2

Scored

1,5

Conceded

2,2

2,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 16/15 matches

Win Ø 36%

44%

27%

Points per game

1,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 78%

75%

80%

Both score Ø 75%

56%

93%

Average goals

3,4

4,3

Scored

1,8

1,9

Conceded

1,7

2,4

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,24 xG 0,81

53% Possession 47%

12 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 6

13 Free kicks against 16

5 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lugano 6. · Winterthur 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Young Boys	17	10	5	2	+21	+0.2	35
2	Zurich	15	8	6	1	+16	-0.6	30
3	St. Gallen	17	9	3	5	+11	+9.5	30
4	Servette	17	8	6	3	+8	+9.6	30
5	Luzern	16	7	3	6	-4	+1.4	24
6	Lugano	16	7	1	8	+1	+2.0	22
7	Grasshoppers	17	6	2	9	+1	-4.6	20
8	Lausanne	17	5	5	7	-4	+1.7	20
9	Yverdon	16	4	5	7	-15	-8.3	17
10	Winterthur	15	4	4	7	-8	-1.0	16
11	Basel	17	4	3	10	-11	-6.2	15
12	Lausanne Ouchy	16	2	5	9	-16	-3.9	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	St. Gallen	8	8	0	0	+16	+5.3	24
2	Young Boys	9	7	2	0	+19	+1.7	23
3	Luzern	8	6	1	1	+6	+3.6	19
4	Zurich	8	5	2	1	+7	-1.4	17
5	Servette	8	4	3	1	+7	+3.5	15
6	Lausanne	9	4	3	2	+4	+1.3	15
7	Grasshoppers	8	4	1	3	+7	-1.9	13
8	Lugano	8	4	1	3	+2	-0.4	13
9	Yverdon	8	3	3	2	-3	-1.2	12
10	Basel	9	3	2	4	+0	-4.3	11
11	Winterthur	7	3	2	2	+0	+1.3	11
12	Lausanne Ouchy	8	1	4	3	-8	-1.2	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Servette	9	4	3	2	+1	+6.1	15
2	Zurich	7	3	4	0	+9	+0.8	13
3	Young Boys	8	3	3	2	+2	-1.5	12
4	Lugano	8	3	0	5	-1	+2.4	9
5	Grasshoppers	9	2	1	6	-6	-2.7	7
6	St. Gallen	9	1	3	5	-5	+4.2	6
7	Winterthur	8	1	2	5	-8	-2.3	5
8	Lausanne	8	1	2	5	-8	+0.4	5
9	Luzern	8	1	2	5	-10	-2.2	5
10	Yverdon	8	1	2	5	-12	-7.1	5
11	Lausanne Ouchy	8	1	1	6	-8	-2.7	4
12	Basel	8	1	1	6	-11	-1.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.