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Super League
Referee: M Turkes
Winterthur
T T S T U
1–4
Full-time
Thun
S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Winterthur Thun
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,8
2,5
Scored
1,7
1,3
Conceded
2,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Super League · 17/17 matches
Win Ø 39%
12%
65%
Points per game
0,6
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 80%
88%
71%
Both score Ø 65%
65%
65%
Average goals
4,0
3,0
Scored
1,3
1,8
Conceded
2,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
-1,4
+0,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

0,45 xG 3,09
41% Possession 59%
6 Shots 28
1 Shots on target 10
3 Blocked shots 7
7 Goalkeeper saves 0
3 Corners 5
0 Offside 3
14 Free kicks against 16
5 Yellow cards 1
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Winterthur 12. · Thun 1.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Thun 17 11 1 5 +11 -2.6 34
2 St. Gallen 17 10 1 6 +13 +2.1 31
3 Young Boys 17 8 5 4 +7 +0.6 29
4 Basel 17 8 4 5 +7 +13.2 28
5 Sion 17 7 6 4 +6 +5.5 27
6 Lugano 17 8 3 6 +1 -0.5 27
7 Zurich 17 7 3 7 -4 +3.4 24
8 Lausanne 17 5 6 6 +4 +4.6 21
9 Servette 17 5 4 8 -6 +1.3 19
10 Luzern 17 4 6 7 -3 -3.0 18
11 Grasshoppers 17 3 5 9 -12 -12.4 14
12 Winterthur 17 2 4 11 -24 -12.1 10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

28. Oct -25 Thun – Winterthur 3–0

Match report

Winterthur Thun
E. Maluvunu 🔁
↦ T. Golliard
11′
Luca Zuffi 🟨
14′
20′
F. Meichtry 0–1
V. Matoshi
22′
R. Arnold 1–1
own goal
Remo Arnold 🟥
26′
Remo Arnold ℹ️
VAR: Card upgrade
26′
M. Martins 🔁
↦ A. Jankewitz
30′
34′
🟨 Leonardo Bertone
2–1 A. Hunziker
S. Diaby
38′
Bafode Dansoko 🟨
40′
43′
J. Roth 2–2
Half-time 2–2
Marvin Martins 🟨
61′
72′
🔁 K. Imeri
↦ F. Meichtry
73′
🔁 N. Reichmuth
↦ V. Matoshi
73′
🔁 C. Ibayi
↦ B. Labeau
B. Stillhart 🔁
↦ L. Zuffi
79′
R. Buess 🔁
↦ S. Diaby
79′
N. Burkart 🔁
↦ F. Rohner
79′
Roman Buess 🟨
80′
Stefanos Kapino 🟨
86′
90′
C. Ibayi 2–3
K. Imeri
91′
🔁 D. Franke
↦ E. Rastoder
94′
🔁 V. Janjicic
↦ L. Bertone
Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

Winterthur

4-2-3-1
1 S. Kapino G
27 F. Rohner D
16 R. Arnold D
22 A. Durrer D
18 S. Diaby D
44 S. Cueni M
7 L. Zuffi M
11 B. Dansoko M
45 A. Jankewitz M
8 T. Golliard M
17 A. Hunziker F
Bench (9)
4 B. Stillhart
9 R. Buess
23 P. Kasami
37 E. Maluvunu
66 M. Martins
68 B. Beyer
75 A. Spagnoli
99 N. Burkart
33 T. Citherlet

Coach: Patrick Rahmen

Thun

4-2-2-2
24 N. Steffen G
37 L. Dahler D
4 G. Montolio D
23 M. Burki D
27 M. Heule D
6 L. Bertone M
16 J. Roth M
77 F. Meichtry M
78 V. Matoshi M
96 B. Labeau F
74 E. Rastoder F
Bench (9)
30 J. Eicher
47 F. Fehr
8 V. Janjicic
11 L. Stewart
7 K. Imeri
70 N. Reichmuth
18 C. Ibayi
33 M. Gutbub
5 D. Franke

Coach: Mauro Lustrinelli

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
U
B ✓
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Turkes · 39 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.