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Super League

Referee: L Cibelli

Luzern

U T S T U

1–3

Full-time

Winterthur

U T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luzern Winterthur

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

4,2

3,7

Scored

2,3

1,0

Conceded

1,8

2,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 18%

29%

Points per game

1,3

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

79%

86%

Both score Ø 68%

79%

57%

Average goals

3,7

4,1

Scored

2,0

1,1

Conceded

1,7

2,9

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

68% Possession 32%

26 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 5

11 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

11 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 5

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luzern 8. · Winterthur 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	14	10	1	3	+11	-1.6	31
2	St. Gallen	14	9	0	5	+12	+3.4	27
3	Young Boys	14	7	4	3	+7	-0.4	25
4	Basel	14	7	2	5	+6	+10.2	23
5	Lugano	15	7	2	6	-1	+0.6	23
6	Sion	15	5	6	4	+3	+5.5	21
7	Zurich	15	6	2	7	-5	+2.7	20
8	Luzern	14	4	6	4	+4	-0.3	18
9	Lausanne	14	4	4	6	+3	+3.8	16
10	Servette	14	4	3	7	-5	+0.4	15
11	Grasshoppers	15	3	5	7	-10	-12.0	14
12	Winterthur	14	1	3	10	-25	-12.4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	St. Gallen	8	5	0	3	+8	+4.6	15
2	Young Boys	7	4	2	1	+10	+5.9	14
3	Lugano	8	4	2	2	+3	+1.6	14
4	Thun	7	4	1	2	+4	-2.6	13
5	Basel	6	4	0	2	+7	+11.0	12
6	Zurich	8	4	0	4	-2	+3.3	12
7	Lausanne	7	3	1	3	+6	+5.1	10
8	Grasshoppers	7	2	3	2	+3	-3.6	9
9	Sion	7	2	2	3	+1	+0.3	8
10	Servette	7	2	2	3	-2	+0.3	8
11	Luzern	7	1	4	2	+4	+2.6	7
12	Winterthur	7	1	2	4	-4	-1.8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	7	6	0	1	+7	+1.0	18
2	Sion	8	3	4	1	+2	+5.2	13
3	St. Gallen	6	4	0	2	+4	-1.2	12
4	Luzern	7	3	2	2	+0	-2.9	11
5	Basel	8	3	2	3	-1	-0.8	11
6	Young Boys	7	3	2	2	-3	-6.3	11
7	Lugano	7	3	0	4	-4	-1.0	9
8	Zurich	7	2	2	3	-3	-0.6	8
9	Servette	7	2	1	4	-3	+0.1	7
10	Lausanne	7	1	3	3	-3	-1.3	6
11	Grasshoppers	8	1	2	5	-13	-8.3	5
12	Winterthur	7	0	1	6	-21	-10.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.