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Super League
Referee: Nico Gianforte
Thun
S S S S S
0–1
Full-time
Lugano
S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Thun Lugano
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 92%
100%
83%
Points per game
3,0
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,5
2,7
Scored
2,0
1,8
Conceded
0,5
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Super League · 13/12 matches
Win Ø 64%
77%
50%
Points per game
2,4
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 68%
77%
58%
Both score Ø 64%
69%
58%
Average goals
3,1
2,8
Scored
2,0
1,4
Conceded
1,1
1,4
Goal diff per game
+0,9
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,14 xG 0,78
41% Possession 59%
20 Shots 13
9 Shots on target 3
6 Blocked shots 8
2 Goalkeeper saves 9
10 Corners 5
4 Offside 1
8 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Thun 1. · Lugano 6. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Thun 13 10 1 2 +12 -2.9 31
2 Young Boys 14 7 4 3 +7 -0.4 25
3 Basel 13 7 1 5 +6 +8.6 22
4 St. Gallen 12 7 0 5 +9 +3.2 21
5 Sion 13 5 4 4 +3 +5.3 19
6 Lugano 12 6 1 5 +0 +1.6 19
7 Luzern 14 4 6 4 +4 -0.3 18
8 Lausanne 13 4 4 5 +4 +4.0 16
9 Zurich 13 5 1 7 -6 +3.4 16
10 Servette 14 4 3 7 -5 +0.4 15
11 Grasshoppers 13 3 4 6 -9 -10.5 13
12 Winterthur 14 1 3 10 -25 -12.4 6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

27. Jul -25 Lugano – Thun 1–2 15. Jul -20 Lugano – Thun 1–1 9. Feb -20 Thun – Lugano 3–2 24. Nov -19 Thun – Lugano 0–3 28. Jul -19 Lugano – Thun 0–0

Match report

Thun Lugano
Justin Roth 🟨
19′
22′
🟨 Hicham Mahou
Half-time 0–0
63′
🔁 M. Belhadj
↦ H. Mahou
66′
🟨 Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud
N. Rupp 🔁
↦ J. Roth
70′
B. Labeau 🔁
↦ C. Ibayi
70′
74′
🟥 Uran Bislimi
V. Matoshi 🔁
↦ K. Imeri
75′
F. Meichtry 🔁
↦ N. Reichmuth
79′
79′
🔁 Z. Brault-Guillard
↦ Y. Cimignani
79′
🔁 G. Koutsias
↦ K. Behrens
79′
🔁 C. Cassano
↦ D. Dos Santos
Marco Bürki 🟨
84′
86′
⚽ C. Cassano 0–1
G. Koutsias
L. Stewart 🔁
↦ L. Dahler
88′
90′
🔁 A. El Wafi
↦ M. Marques
94′
🟨 Amir Saipi
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Thun

4-4-2
24 N. Steffen G
37 L. Dahler D
19 J. Bamert D
23 M. Burki D
27 M. Heule D
70 N. Reichmuth M
6 L. Bertone M
16 J. Roth M
7 K. Imeri M
18 C. Ibayi F
74 E. Rastoder F
Bench (9)
4 G. Montolio
11 L. Stewart
20 N. Rupp
30 J. Eicher
33 M. Gutbub
47 F. Fehr
77 F. Meichtry
78 V. Matoshi
96 B. Labeau

Coach: Mauro Lustrinelli

Lugano

4-2-3-1
1 A. Saipi G
46 M. Zanotti D
17 L. Mai D
6 A. Papadopoulos D
26 M. Marques D
8 A. Grgic M
25 U. Bislimi M
21 Y. Cimignani M
27 D. Dos Santos M
18 H. Mahou M
91 K. Behrens F
Bench (9)
2 Z. Brault-Guillard
9 G. Koutsias
19 C. Cassano
20 O. Doumbia
22 A. El Wafi
24 E. Pihlstrom
29 M. Belhadj
97 A. Duville-Parsemain
99 D. Mina

Coach: Mattia Croci-Torti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
–
🔒
U
–
🔒
B ✓
–
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.