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Bundesliga

Referee: D Aytekin

Freiburg

S U T S T

1–1

Full-time

Mainz

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,3

This season — Bundesliga · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 43%

43%

Points per game

1,6

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

57%

52%

Both score Ø 53%

57%

48%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,6

1,4

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

61% Possession 39%

16 Shots 20

5 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 3

0 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 6. · Mainz 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	21	17	1	3	+47	52
2	Dortmund	21	14	1	6	+18	43
3	Leverkusen	21	11	5	5	+20	38
4	RB Leipzig	22	10	4	8	+16	34
5	Union Berlin	21	9	7	5	+2	34
6	Freiburg	21	9	6	6	+9	33
7	FC Koln	22	8	8	6	-3	32
8	Hoffenheim	21	9	4	8	+7	31
9	Ein Frankfurt	21	8	7	6	+1	31
10	Mainz	21	9	3	9	+7	30
11	Bochum	21	7	4	10	-10	25
12	Wolfsburg	21	7	3	11	-12	24
13	M'gladbach	21	6	5	10	-11	23
14	Hertha	21	6	5	10	-20	23
15	Bielefeld	21	4	10	7	-6	22
16	Augsburg	21	5	7	9	-13	22
17	Stuttgart	21	4	6	11	-14	18
18	Greuther Furth	21	2	4	15	-38	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	9	0	2	+23	27
2	RB Leipzig	12	9	0	3	+20	27
3	Dortmund	11	9	0	2	+15	27
4	Mainz	11	7	3	1	+16	24
5	Union Berlin	10	6	3	1	+5	21
6	FC Koln	11	6	3	2	+4	21
7	Hoffenheim	10	6	2	2	+11	20
8	Freiburg	10	5	3	2	+6	18
9	Bochum	10	5	3	2	+5	18
10	Leverkusen	10	5	2	3	+9	17
11	Augsburg	10	4	3	3	-1	15
12	Hertha	11	4	3	4	-2	15
13	M'gladbach	10	4	2	4	-1	14
14	Wolfsburg	11	4	2	5	-3	14
15	Ein Frankfurt	10	3	4	3	+1	13
16	Stuttgart	11	3	2	6	-5	11
17	Bielefeld	11	1	7	3	-5	10
18	Greuther Furth	10	2	3	5	-7	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	10	8	1	1	+24	25
2	Leverkusen	11	6	3	2	+11	21
3	Ein Frankfurt	11	5	3	3	+0	18
4	Dortmund	10	5	1	4	+3	16
5	Freiburg	11	4	3	4	+3	15
6	Union Berlin	11	3	4	4	-3	13
7	Bielefeld	10	3	3	4	-1	12
8	Hoffenheim	11	3	2	6	-4	11
9	FC Koln	11	2	5	4	-7	11
10	Wolfsburg	10	3	1	6	-9	10
11	M'gladbach	11	2	3	6	-10	9
12	Hertha	10	2	2	6	-18	8
13	RB Leipzig	10	1	4	5	-4	7
14	Stuttgart	10	1	4	5	-9	7
15	Augsburg	11	1	4	6	-12	7
16	Bochum	11	2	1	8	-15	7
17	Mainz	10	2	0	8	-9	6
18	Greuther Furth	11	0	1	10	-31	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.