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Bundesliga

Referee: G Winkmann

Leverkusen

T S T T S

2–2

Full-time

Mainz

U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,7

This season — Bundesliga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 33%

50%

15%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

55%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

60%

55%

Average goals

2,9

3,0

Scored

1,9

1,0

Conceded

1,1

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,1

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

69% Possession 31%

11 Shots 19

5 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 8

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 2

0 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 17

5 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leverkusen 5. · Mainz 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	20	15	3	2	+32	48
2	RB Leipzig	21	13	5	3	+19	44
3	Wolfsburg	20	10	8	2	+13	38
4	Ein Frankfurt	20	9	9	2	+12	36
5	Leverkusen	20	10	5	5	+16	35
6	Dortmund	20	10	2	8	+10	32
7	M'gladbach	20	8	8	4	+6	32
8	Freiburg	20	8	6	6	+2	30
9	Union Berlin	20	7	8	5	+9	29
10	Stuttgart	20	6	7	7	+3	25
11	Werder Bremen	19	5	7	7	-3	22
12	Hoffenheim	20	6	4	10	-7	22
13	Augsburg	21	6	4	11	-13	22
14	FC Koln	20	5	6	9	-13	21
15	Hertha	20	4	5	11	-11	17
16	Bielefeld	19	5	2	12	-17	17
17	Mainz	20	3	4	13	-21	13
18	Schalke 04	20	1	5	14	-37	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	11	9	1	1	+14	28
2	Bayern Munich	9	7	2	0	+22	23
3	Wolfsburg	9	6	3	0	+9	21
4	Freiburg	11	5	4	2	+8	19
5	M'gladbach	11	5	4	2	+6	19
6	Leverkusen	10	5	3	2	+8	18
7	Union Berlin	10	4	5	1	+9	17
8	Ein Frankfurt	9	4	5	0	+6	17
9	Dortmund	9	5	1	3	+8	16
10	Bielefeld	10	4	0	6	-6	12
11	Hoffenheim	10	3	2	5	+0	11
12	Augsburg	11	3	2	6	-8	11
13	Werder Bremen	9	2	3	4	-4	9
14	Stuttgart	9	1	5	3	-2	8
15	Hertha	10	2	2	6	-9	8
16	Mainz	11	2	2	7	-9	8
17	FC Koln	10	1	3	6	-8	6
18	Schalke 04	11	1	2	8	-14	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	8	1	2	+10	25
2	Ein Frankfurt	11	5	4	2	+6	19
3	Leverkusen	10	5	2	3	+8	17
4	Stuttgart	11	5	2	4	+5	17
5	Wolfsburg	11	4	5	2	+4	17
6	RB Leipzig	10	4	4	2	+5	16
7	Dortmund	11	5	1	5	+2	16
8	FC Koln	10	4	3	3	-5	15
9	Werder Bremen	10	3	4	3	+1	13
10	M'gladbach	9	3	4	2	+0	13
11	Union Berlin	10	3	3	4	+0	12
12	Augsburg	10	3	2	5	-5	11
13	Freiburg	9	3	2	4	-6	11
14	Hoffenheim	10	3	2	5	-7	11
15	Hertha	10	2	3	5	-2	9
16	Bielefeld	9	1	2	6	-11	5
17	Mainz	9	1	2	6	-12	5
18	Schalke 04	9	0	3	6	-23	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.