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Bundesliga

Referee: M Petersen

FC Koln

U T S U T

3–2

Full-time

Mainz

T T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

FC Koln Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,3

3,2

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

This season — Bundesliga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 38%

36%

39%

Points per game

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

46%

54%

Both score Ø 59%

64%

54%

Average goals

2,8

2,6

Scored

1,4

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

53% Possession 47%

13 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

19 Free kicks against 23

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match FC Koln 8. · Mainz 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	28	21	3	4	+56	66
2	Dortmund	29	19	3	7	+28	60
3	Leverkusen	28	15	6	7	+26	51
4	RB Leipzig	28	14	6	8	+30	48
5	Freiburg	28	12	9	7	+11	45
6	Hoffenheim	28	13	5	10	+8	44
7	Union Berlin	28	11	8	9	-4	41
8	FC Koln	28	10	10	8	-3	40
9	Ein Frankfurt	28	10	9	9	+1	39
10	Mainz	28	11	5	12	+8	38
11	Bochum	28	10	5	13	-10	35
12	M'gladbach	28	9	7	12	-13	34
13	Augsburg	28	8	8	12	-11	32
14	Wolfsburg	28	9	4	15	-16	31
15	Stuttgart	29	6	9	14	-17	27
16	Bielefeld	28	5	11	12	-16	26
17	Hertha	28	7	5	16	-32	26
18	Greuther Furth	28	3	7	18	-46	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	11	1	2	+30	34
2	Dortmund	14	11	0	3	+19	33
3	Mainz	14	9	3	2	+20	30
4	RB Leipzig	14	9	2	3	+20	29
5	Union Berlin	14	8	4	2	+5	28
6	Hoffenheim	14	8	3	3	+13	27
7	Leverkusen	14	8	2	4	+14	26
8	Freiburg	14	7	4	3	+7	25
9	FC Koln	14	7	4	3	+4	25
10	Bochum	14	7	3	4	+5	24
11	M'gladbach	14	6	4	4	+2	22
12	Augsburg	14	6	4	4	+2	22
13	Stuttgart	15	5	3	7	-5	18
14	Hertha	14	5	3	6	-7	18
15	Ein Frankfurt	14	4	5	5	-1	17
16	Wolfsburg	14	5	2	7	-5	17
17	Bielefeld	14	2	8	4	-5	14
18	Greuther Furth	14	3	5	6	-11	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	10	2	2	+26	32
2	Dortmund	15	8	3	4	+9	27
3	Leverkusen	14	7	4	3	+12	25
4	Ein Frankfurt	14	6	4	4	+2	22
5	Freiburg	14	5	5	4	+4	20
6	RB Leipzig	14	5	4	5	+10	19
7	Hoffenheim	14	5	2	7	-5	17
8	FC Koln	14	3	6	5	-7	15
9	Wolfsburg	14	4	2	8	-11	14
10	Union Berlin	14	3	4	7	-9	13
11	Bielefeld	14	3	3	8	-11	12
12	M'gladbach	14	3	3	8	-15	12
13	Bochum	14	3	2	9	-15	11
14	Augsburg	14	2	4	8	-13	10
15	Stuttgart	14	1	6	7	-12	9
16	Mainz	14	2	2	10	-12	8
17	Hertha	14	2	2	10	-25	8
18	Greuther Furth	14	0	2	12	-35	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.