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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Godinho

Tondela

T U T U S

1–3

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,8

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

1,2

2,2

Conceded

1,8

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 52%

25%

79%

Points per game

0,9

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

71%

43%

Both score Ø 54%

64%

43%

Average goals

3,3

2,6

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

2,0

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

28% Possession 72%

3 Shots 17

2 Shots on target 9

0 Blocked shots 1

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 9

14 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 16. · Sp Lisbon 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	28	24	4	0	+52	76
2	Sp Lisbon	28	22	4	2	+39	70
3	Benfica	29	20	4	5	+44	64
4	Sp Braga	28	15	7	6	+18	52
5	Gil Vicente	29	12	10	7	+10	46
6	Guimaraes	28	11	6	11	+1	39
7	Pacos Ferreira	29	9	9	11	-7	36
8	Estoril	28	8	10	10	-2	34
9	Boavista	29	6	15	8	-7	33
10	Maritimo	29	8	9	12	-7	33
11	Santa Clara	28	7	10	11	-16	31
12	Portimonense	28	7	8	13	-8	29
13	Vizela	28	6	11	11	-15	29
14	Famalicao	28	6	10	12	-9	28
15	Arouca	29	6	8	15	-23	26
16	Tondela	28	7	4	17	-19	25
17	Moreirense	29	5	8	16	-20	23
18	Belenenses	29	4	9	16	-31	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	14	12	2	0	+28	38
2	Sp Lisbon	14	12	1	1	+21	37
3	Benfica	15	10	2	3	+21	32
4	Sp Braga	15	8	4	3	+12	28
5	Guimaraes	13	7	2	4	+6	23
6	Santa Clara	14	6	5	3	-3	23
7	Boavista	15	4	9	2	+3	21
8	Gil Vicente	15	5	5	5	+3	20
9	Pacos Ferreira	15	5	5	5	-1	20
10	Maritimo	14	3	6	5	+0	15
11	Estoril	14	3	6	5	-1	15
12	Famalicao	14	3	6	5	-2	15
13	Vizela	14	3	6	5	-5	15
14	Belenenses	14	4	3	7	-14	15
15	Tondela	14	4	2	8	-7	14
16	Arouca	14	4	2	8	-15	14
17	Moreirense	14	3	3	8	-5	12
18	Portimonense	14	2	4	8	-8	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	14	12	2	0	+24	38
2	Sp Lisbon	14	10	3	1	+18	33
3	Benfica	14	10	2	2	+23	32
4	Gil Vicente	14	7	5	2	+7	26
5	Sp Braga	13	7	3	3	+6	24
6	Portimonense	14	5	4	5	+0	19
7	Estoril	14	5	4	5	-1	19
8	Maritimo	15	5	3	7	-7	18
9	Guimaraes	15	4	4	7	-5	16
10	Pacos Ferreira	14	4	4	6	-6	16
11	Vizela	14	3	5	6	-10	14
12	Famalicao	14	3	4	7	-7	13
13	Arouca	15	2	6	7	-8	12
14	Boavista	14	2	6	6	-10	12
15	Tondela	14	3	2	9	-12	11
16	Moreirense	15	2	5	8	-15	11
17	Santa Clara	14	1	5	8	-13	8
18	Belenenses	15	0	6	9	-17	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.