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La Liga

Referee: Carlos del Cerro

Villarreal

S T S T T

1–1

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

T S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,7

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

This season — La Liga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 39%

40%

37%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

43%

40%

Both score Ø 45%

40%

50%

Average goals

2,6

2,1

Scored

1,6

1,2

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

60% Possession 40%

11 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 7. · Ath Bilbao 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	30	21	6	3	+35	69
2	Sevilla	31	16	12	3	+22	60
3	Barcelona	29	16	9	4	+28	57
4	Ath Madrid	31	17	6	8	+19	57
5	Betis	31	17	5	9	+19	56
6	Sociedad	30	14	9	7	+1	51
7	Villarreal	30	12	9	9	+19	45
8	Ath Bilbao	30	11	11	8	+6	44
9	Valencia	30	10	11	9	-1	41
10	Osasuna	30	10	8	12	-10	38
11	Celta	30	9	9	12	+0	36
12	Espanol	30	9	9	12	-7	36
13	Vallecano	29	9	6	14	-5	33
14	Getafe	30	7	11	12	-5	32
15	Elche	30	8	8	14	-11	32
16	Granada	31	6	11	14	-17	29
17	Mallorca	31	7	8	16	-23	29
18	Cadiz	31	5	13	13	-17	28
19	Levante	30	4	10	16	-25	22
20	Alaves	30	5	7	18	-28	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sevilla	15	11	4	0	+19	37
2	Real Madrid	15	10	4	1	+19	34
3	Ath Madrid	15	10	3	2	+15	33
4	Barcelona	14	10	2	2	+19	32
5	Villarreal	15	9	4	2	+21	31
6	Sociedad	15	9	4	2	+6	31
7	Betis	16	9	2	5	+12	29
8	Espanol	15	8	4	3	+6	28
9	Vallecano	15	8	3	4	+10	27
10	Ath Bilbao	15	8	3	4	+9	27
11	Getafe	15	7	4	4	+7	25
12	Valencia	15	5	7	3	+4	22
13	Mallorca	16	5	6	5	-3	21
14	Elche	14	5	5	4	+1	20
15	Celta	16	5	4	7	+0	19
16	Osasuna	15	4	6	5	-6	18
17	Granada	15	4	5	6	-5	17
18	Levante	15	3	7	5	-3	16
19	Alaves	15	4	4	7	-6	16
20	Cadiz	16	2	8	6	-7	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	15	11	2	2	+16	35
2	Betis	15	8	3	4	+7	27
3	Barcelona	15	6	7	2	+9	25
4	Ath Madrid	16	7	3	6	+4	24
5	Sevilla	16	5	8	3	+3	23
6	Osasuna	15	6	2	7	-4	20
7	Sociedad	15	5	5	5	-5	20
8	Valencia	15	5	4	6	-5	19
9	Celta	14	4	5	5	+0	17
10	Ath Bilbao	15	3	8	4	-3	17
11	Villarreal	15	3	5	7	-2	14
12	Cadiz	15	3	5	7	-10	14
13	Granada	16	2	6	8	-12	12
14	Elche	16	3	3	10	-12	12
15	Espanol	15	1	5	9	-13	8
16	Mallorca	15	2	2	11	-20	8
17	Getafe	15	0	7	8	-12	7
18	Vallecano	14	1	3	10	-15	6
19	Levante	15	1	3	11	-22	6
20	Alaves	15	1	3	11	-22	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.