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Bundesliga

Referee: F Willenborg

Bayern Munich

S S S S T

1–0

Full-time

Union Berlin

S T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Union Berlin

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 17/16 matches

Win Ø 51%

76%

25%

Points per game

2,4

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 76%

88%

63%

Both score Ø 43%

47%

38%

Average goals

4,0

3,0

Scored

3,1

1,1

Conceded

0,9

1,9

Goal diff per game

+2,1

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,08 xG 0,25

72% Possession 28%

24 Shots 4

10 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 9

12 Corners 1

4 Offside 0

5 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bayern Munich 2. · Union Berlin 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	18	15	3	0	+36	+20.0	48
2	Bayern Munich	17	13	2	2	+36	+36.6	41
3	Stuttgart	18	11	1	6	+15	+20.7	34
4	RB Leipzig	18	10	3	5	+19	+16.0	33
5	Dortmund	18	9	6	3	+12	+5.5	33
6	Ein Frankfurt	18	7	7	4	+7	-4.2	28
7	Freiburg	18	8	4	6	-4	+2.8	28
8	Hoffenheim	18	7	3	8	-2	-4.0	24
9	Heidenheim	18	6	4	8	-7	-16.3	22
10	Augsburg	18	5	6	7	-7	-5.6	21
11	Wolfsburg	18	6	3	9	-7	-4.9	21
12	M'gladbach	18	5	5	8	-3	-2.8	20
13	Werder Bremen	18	5	5	8	-6	-8.7	20
14	Bochum	18	4	8	6	-14	-8.1	20
15	Union Berlin	16	4	2	10	-14	-5.9	14
16	Mainz	17	1	8	8	-15	-1.6	11
17	FC Koln	18	2	5	11	-22	-20.1	11
18	Darmstadt	18	2	5	11	-24	-19.5	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	9	8	1	0	+23	+16.8	25
2	Bayern Munich	9	7	1	1	+27	+21.4	22
3	Stuttgart	9	7	1	1	+19	+18.3	22
4	RB Leipzig	10	6	2	2	+16	+12.5	20
5	Freiburg	9	5	3	1	+5	+8.3	18
6	Heidenheim	9	5	2	2	+3	-4.4	17
7	Dortmund	9	5	2	2	+2	+4.4	17
8	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	3	1	+7	+1.9	15
9	Bochum	9	3	5	1	+4	+5.2	14
10	M'gladbach	10	4	2	4	+2	+2.0	14
11	Werder Bremen	9	4	2	3	+1	-0.8	14
12	Wolfsburg	8	4	1	3	+3	-2.2	13
13	Augsburg	9	3	4	2	+1	-0.9	13
14	Union Berlin	8	3	1	4	-4	-1.3	10
15	Hoffenheim	8	2	2	4	-2	+1.5	8
16	FC Koln	9	1	3	5	-8	-8.4	6
17	Darmstadt	10	1	3	6	-9	-4.7	6
18	Mainz	8	1	2	5	-7	+1.7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	9	7	2	0	+13	+3.2	23
2	Bayern Munich	8	6	1	1	+9	+15.2	19
3	Dortmund	9	4	4	1	+10	+1.1	16
4	Hoffenheim	10	5	1	4	+0	-5.5	16
5	RB Leipzig	8	4	1	3	+3	+3.5	13
6	Ein Frankfurt	10	3	4	3	+0	-6.0	13
7	Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	-4	+2.4	12
8	Freiburg	9	3	1	5	-9	-5.5	10
9	Augsburg	9	2	2	5	-8	-4.6	8
10	Wolfsburg	10	2	2	6	-10	-2.7	8
11	M'gladbach	8	1	3	4	-5	-4.7	6
12	Werder Bremen	9	1	3	5	-7	-7.9	6
13	Mainz	9	0	6	3	-8	-3.3	6
14	Bochum	9	1	3	5	-18	-13.4	6
15	Heidenheim	9	1	2	6	-10	-11.9	5
16	FC Koln	9	1	2	6	-14	-11.8	5
17	Darmstadt	8	1	2	5	-15	-14.8	5
18	Union Berlin	8	1	1	6	-10	-4.7	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.