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Bundesliga
Referee: F Willenborg
Union Berlin
S S U S S
1–1
Full-time
Bayern Munich
S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Union Berlin Bayern Munich
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
83%
67%
Points per game
2,7
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
3,7
4,5
Scored
2,7
3,8
Conceded
1,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,7
+3,2
This season — Bundesliga · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 75%
75%
75%
Points per game
2,5
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 63%
75%
50%
Both score Ø 63%
75%
50%
Average goals
3,5
4,5
Scored
2,8
4,0
Conceded
0,8
0,5
Goal diff per game
+2,0
+3,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

25% Possession 75%
10 Shots 21
3 Shots on target 6
1 Blocked shots 6
5 Goalkeeper saves 1
5 Corners 7
0 Offside 2
19 Free kicks against 7
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Union Berlin 3. · Bayern Munich 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Dortmund 5 4 0 1 +4 12
2 Bayern Munich 4 3 1 0 +14 10
3 Union Berlin 4 3 1 0 +8 10
4 Freiburg 4 3 0 1 +4 9
5 Hoffenheim 5 3 0 2 +2 9
6 M'gladbach 4 2 2 0 +3 8
7 Mainz 4 2 1 1 -1 7
8 FC Koln 4 1 3 0 +2 6
9 RB Leipzig 4 1 2 1 +1 5
10 Werder Bremen 4 1 2 1 +0 5
11 Ein Frankfurt 4 1 2 1 -4 5
12 Stuttgart 4 0 3 1 -1 3
13 Leverkusen 4 1 0 3 -2 3
14 Augsburg 4 1 0 3 -5 3
15 Wolfsburg 4 0 2 2 -4 2
16 Schalke 04 4 0 2 2 -7 2
17 Hertha 4 0 1 3 -4 1
18 Bochum 4 0 0 4 -10 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Union Berlin Bayern Munich
1–0 S. Becker
C. Trimmel
12′
15′
J. Kimmich 1–1
26′
🟨 Joshua Kimmich
Half-time 1–1
S. Michel 🔁
↦ K. Behrens
62′
J. Leweling 🔁
↦ S. Becker
62′
62′
🔁 T. Müller
↦ J. Musiala
62′
🔁 R. Gravenberch
↦ J. Kimmich
72′
🟨 Ryan Gravenberch
73′
🔁 S. Gnabry
↦ K. Coman
N. Gießelmann 🔁
↦ J. Ryerson
81′
G. Haraguchi 🔁
↦ M. Thorsby
85′
P. Seguin 🔁
↦ A. Schäfer
85′
85′
🔁 L. Goretzka
↦ A. Davies
Rani Khedira 🟨
87′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Union Berlin

3-5-2
1 F. Rønnow G
3 P. Jaeckel D
31 R. Knoche D
5 D. Doekhi D
28 C. Trimmel M
2 M. Thorsby M
8 R. Khedira M
13 A. Schäfer M
6 J. Ryerson M
17 K. Behrens F
27 S. Becker F
Bench (9)
11 S. Michel
40 J. Leweling
23 N. Gießelmann
24 G. Haraguchi
14 P. Seguin
7 L. Öztunalı
37 L. Grill
26 T. Puchacz
32 M. Pantović

Coach: U. Fischer

Bayern Munich

4-2-3-1
1 M. Neuer G
5 B. Pavard D
2 D. Upamecano D
4 M. de Ligt D
19 A. Davies D
6 J. Kimmich M
18 M. Sabitzer M
11 K. Coman M
42 J. Musiala M
10 L. Sané M
17 S. Mané F
Bench (9)
25 T. Müller
38 R. Gravenberch
7 S. Gnabry
8 L. Goretzka
44 J. Stanišić
13 E. Choupo-Moting
26 S. Ulreich
40 N. Mazraoui
21 L. Hernández

Coach: J. Nagelsmann

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
7,43
U ✓
5,54
B
1,38
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,42
U2,5 ✓
2,88
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

F Willenborg · 102 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.