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Bundesliga
Referee: H Osmers
Bayern Munich
T S S U U
4–0
Full-time
Union Berlin
T T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Union Berlin
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,8
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 58%
83%
33%
Average goals
3,5
2,2
Scored
2,0
0,7
Conceded
1,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-0,8
This season — Bundesliga · 26/26 matches
Win Ø 56%
73%
38%
Points per game
2,3
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 66%
81%
50%
Both score Ø 64%
69%
58%
Average goals
4,0
2,6
Scored
3,0
1,3
Conceded
1,1
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,9
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

71% Possession 29%
16 Shots 9
7 Shots on target 4
4 Blocked shots 0
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 2
0 Offside 2
8 Free kicks against 7
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Bayern Munich 1. · Union Berlin 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 26 19 3 4 +49 60
2 Dortmund 26 18 2 6 +29 56
3 Leverkusen 26 13 6 7 +23 45
4 Freiburg 27 12 9 6 +14 45
5 RB Leipzig 26 13 5 8 +27 44
6 Hoffenheim 27 13 5 9 +9 44
7 FC Koln 26 10 9 7 -2 39
8 Union Berlin 26 10 8 8 -1 38
9 Mainz 26 11 4 11 +9 37
10 Ein Frankfurt 26 10 7 9 +1 37
11 M'gladbach 27 9 6 12 -13 33
12 Bochum 27 9 5 13 -11 32
13 Wolfsburg 26 9 4 13 -11 31
14 Stuttgart 27 6 8 13 -15 26
15 Augsburg 26 6 8 12 -15 26
16 Hertha 27 7 5 15 -31 26
17 Bielefeld 27 5 10 12 -16 25
18 Greuther Furth 27 3 6 18 -46 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Bayern Munich Union Berlin
1–0 K. Coman
L. Hernández
16′
2–0 T. Nianzou
J. Kimmich
25′
39′
🟨 Timo Baumgartl
Half-time 3–0
3–0 R. Lewandowski
46′
4–0 R. Lewandowski
J. Musiala
47′
Jamal Musiala 🟨
51′
M. Sabitzer 🔁
↦ J. Musiala
62′
62′
🔁 A. Voglsammer
↦ T. Awoniyi
62′
🔁 A. Schäfer
↦ K. Möhwald
S. Gnabry 🔁
↦ K. Coman
68′
73′
🔁 S. Michel
↦ S. Becker
Tanguy Nianzou 🟨
74′
C. Tolisso 🔁
↦ J. Kimmich
75′
Marc Roca 🔁
↦ L. Sané
75′
E. Choupo-Moting 🔁
↦ T. Müller
75′
84′
🔁 A. Ujah
↦ G. Haraguchi
Full-time 4–0

Line-ups

Bayern Munich

4-1-4-1
1 M. Neuer G
21 L. Hernández D
2 D. Upamecano D
44 J. Stanišić D
23 T. Nianzou D
6 J. Kimmich M
42 J. Musiala M
25 T. Müller M
9 R. Lewandowski F
11 K. Coman M
10 L. Sané M
Bench (9)
18 M. Sabitzer
7 S. Gnabry
24 C. Tolisso
22 Marc Roca
13 E. Choupo-Moting
3 O. Richards
8 L. Goretzka
26 S. Ulreich
20 B. Sarr

Coach: J. Nagelsmann

Union Berlin

3-5-2
1 A. Luthe G
20 B. Oczipka M
31 R. Knoche D
25 T. Baumgartl D
6 J. Ryerson M
3 P. Jaeckel D
24 G. Haraguchi M
8 R. Khedira M
30 K. Möhwald M
27 S. Becker F
14 T. Awoniyi F
Bench (9)
9 A. Voglsammer
13 A. Schäfer
10 S. Michel
11 A. Ujah
19 F. Rønnow
29 L. Dehl
39 S. Abdullahi
17 K. Behrens
38 M. Somnitz

Coach: U. Fischer

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,18
U
7,84
B
15,23
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,31
U2,5
3,44
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

H Osmers · 139 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.