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Bundesliga

Referee: T Stieler

Freiburg

T S S S T

2–4

Full-time

Dortmund

U S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,5

Scored

1,3

2,5

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,05 xG 2,35

49% Possession 51%

14 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 8

3 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 8. · Dortmund 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	4	3	1	0	+8	+3.8	10
2	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	+7	+6.6	10
3	Stuttgart	3	2	0	1	+6	+2.4	6
4	RB Leipzig	3	2	0	1	+6	+1.8	6
5	Union Berlin	3	2	0	1	+3	-1.9	6
6	Hoffenheim	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.2	6
7	Wolfsburg	3	2	0	1	+1	+2.2	6
8	Freiburg	3	2	0	1	-3	+1.8	6
9	Dortmund	3	1	2	0	+1	+2.4	5
10	Ein Frankfurt	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.3	5
11	Werder Bremen	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.5	3
12	Augsburg	3	0	2	1	-2	-0.8	2
13	Bochum	3	0	2	1	-5	-3.4	2
14	FC Koln	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.9	1
15	Heidenheim	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.6	1
16	M'gladbach	3	0	1	2	-4	-4.1	1
17	Mainz	3	0	1	2	-7	-1.7	1
18	Darmstadt	3	0	0	3	-8	-2.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Stuttgart	2	2	0	0	+10	+3.0	6
2	Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.3	6
3	Bayern Munich	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.3	4
4	Dortmund	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.0	4
5	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
6	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+4	+0.6	3
7	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
8	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.6	3
9	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.4	3
10	Werder Bremen	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
11	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
12	Augsburg	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.4	2
13	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
14	Bochum	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
15	Heidenheim	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
16	FC Koln	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.7	0
17	Darmstadt	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.5	0
18	M'gladbach	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+5	+4.3	6
2	Leverkusen	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.4	4
3	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+3	-0.5	3
4	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	+2	+1.1	3
5	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
6	Wolfsburg	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.2	3
7	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	-4	+0.4	3
8	M'gladbach	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
9	Ein Frankfurt	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
10	Dortmund	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
11	FC Koln	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.2	1
12	Heidenheim	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.2	1
13	Bochum	2	0	1	1	-5	-3.0	1
14	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.4	0
15	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.2	0
16	Stuttgart	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.6	0
17	Darmstadt	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.4	0
18	Mainz	2	0	0	2	-7	-1.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.