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Bundesliga
Referee: R Schröder
Freiburg
T S U T U
2–1
Full-time
Dortmund
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Dortmund
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
17%
100%
Points per game
1,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,0
4,0
Scored
1,3
3,0
Conceded
1,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+2,0
This season — Bundesliga · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
1,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
0%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
0,0
7,0
Scored
0,0
5,0
Conceded
0,0
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+3,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

24% Possession 76%
8 Shots 19
4 Shots on target 2
1 Blocked shots 4
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
0 Corners 10
0 Offside 1
14 Free kicks against 14
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Freiburg 13. · Dortmund 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Hoffenheim 1 1 0 0 +4 3
2 Dortmund 1 1 0 0 +3 3
3 RB Leipzig 2 1 0 1 +3 3
4 FC Koln 1 1 0 0 +2 3
5 Mainz 1 1 0 0 +1 3
6 Wolfsburg 1 1 0 0 +1 3
7 Stuttgart 2 1 0 1 +0 3
8 M'gladbach 1 0 1 0 +0 1
9 Bayern Munich 1 0 1 0 +0 1
10 Union Berlin 1 0 1 0 +0 1
11 Leverkusen 1 0 1 0 +0 1
12 Bielefeld 1 0 1 0 +0 1
13 Freiburg 1 0 1 0 +0 1
14 Bochum 1 0 0 1 -1 0
15 Hertha 1 0 0 1 -2 0
16 Ein Frankfurt 1 0 0 1 -3 0
17 Greuther Furth 1 0 0 1 -4 0
18 Augsburg 1 0 0 1 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Freiburg Dortmund
1–0 V. Grifo
6′
19′
🟨 Donyell Malen
34′
🟨 Mahmoud Dahoud
38′
🔁 Raphaël Guerreiro
↦ N. Schulz
Half-time 2–0
2–0 R. Sallai
L. Höler
53′
59′
Y. Keitel 3–0
own goal
61′
🟨 Manuel Akanji
70′
🔁 J. Brandt
↦ G. Reyna
E. Demirović 🔁
↦ L. Höler
71′
K. Schade 🔁
↦ R. Sallai
71′
J. Haberer 🔁
↦ Jeong Woo-Yeong
71′
76′
🟨 Raphaël Guerreiro
79′
🔁 Y. Moukoko
↦ D. Malen
79′
🔁 M. Hummels
↦ A. Witsel
80′
🔁 E. Can
↦ F. Passlack
L. Kübler 🔁
↦ V. Grifo
84′
Ermedin Demirović 🟨
86′
M. Eggestein 🔁
↦ Y. Keitel
86′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Freiburg

4-4-2
26 M. Flekken G
30 C. Günter D
3 P. Lienhart D
4 N. Schlotterbeck D
27 N. Höfler M
7 J. Schmid D
32 V. Grifo M
22 R. Sallai M
14 Y. Keitel M
29 Jeong Woo-Yeong F
9 L. Höler F
Bench (9)
11 E. Demirović
20 K. Schade
19 J. Haberer
17 L. Kübler
8 M. Eggestein
1 B. Uphoff
33 N. Weißhaupt
23 D. Heintz
31 K. Schlotterbeck

Coach: C. Streich

Dortmund

4-3-1-2
1 G. Kobel G
14 N. Schulz D
16 M. Akanji D
30 F. Passlack D
28 A. Witsel D
8 M. Dahoud M
7 G. Reyna M
22 J. Bellingham M
11 M. Reus M
21 D. Malen F
9 E. Haaland F
Bench (9)
13 Raphaël Guerreiro
19 J. Brandt
18 Y. Moukoko
15 M. Hummels
23 E. Can
20 Reinier
6 T. Delaney
39 M. Wolf
35 M. Hitz

Coach: M. Rose

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
5,50
U
4,59
B
1,55
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,48
U2,5
2,65
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

R Schröder · 105 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.