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Bundesliga

Referee: D Siebert

Freiburg

S T U S T

1–3

Full-time

Stuttgart

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Stuttgart

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 53%

42%

63%

Points per game

1,5

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

58%

74%

Both score Ø 53%

53%

Average goals

2,9

3,6

Scored

1,3

2,3

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

0,70 xG 1,76

34% Possession 66%

7 Shots 17

4 Shots on target 9

0 Blocked shots 1

7 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 7

4 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 7. · Stuttgart 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	19	15	4	0	+36	+22.5	49
2	Bayern Munich	19	15	2	2	+38	+38.1	47
3	Stuttgart	19	12	1	6	+18	+22.6	37
4	Dortmund	20	10	7	3	+14	+7.5	37
5	RB Leipzig	19	10	3	6	+16	+14.1	33
6	Ein Frankfurt	19	8	7	4	+8	-3.6	31
7	Freiburg	19	8	4	7	-6	+1.5	28
8	Hoffenheim	19	7	4	8	-2	-2.2	25
9	Heidenheim	20	6	6	8	-7	-17.6	24
10	Werder Bremen	19	6	5	8	-4	-7.4	23
11	Wolfsburg	19	6	4	9	-7	-3.9	22
12	M'gladbach	19	5	6	8	-3	-5.3	21
13	Augsburg	19	5	6	8	-8	-5.3	21
14	Bochum	19	4	8	7	-16	-10.6	20
15	Union Berlin	18	5	2	11	-14	-6.3	17
16	FC Koln	19	2	6	11	-22	-21.1	12
17	Mainz	18	1	8	9	-16	-2.1	11
18	Darmstadt	19	2	5	12	-25	-20.9	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	10	8	2	0	+23	+19.4	26
2	Bayern Munich	10	8	1	1	+28	+23.3	25
3	Stuttgart	10	8	1	1	+22	+20.2	25
4	RB Leipzig	10	6	2	2	+16	+12.5	20
5	Dortmund	10	6	2	2	+4	+6.8	20
6	Ein Frankfurt	9	5	3	1	+8	+2.4	18
7	Freiburg	9	5	3	1	+5	+8.3	18
8	Heidenheim	10	5	3	2	+3	-3.9	18
9	Werder Bremen	10	5	2	3	+3	+0.5	17
10	Bochum	9	3	5	1	+4	+5.2	14
11	Wolfsburg	9	4	2	3	+3	-1.3	14
12	M'gladbach	10	4	2	4	+2	+2.0	14
13	Augsburg	10	3	4	3	+0	-0.7	13
14	Union Berlin	9	4	1	4	-3	+0.2	13
15	Hoffenheim	9	2	3	4	-2	+3.3	9
16	FC Koln	9	1	3	5	-8	-8.4	6
17	Darmstadt	10	1	3	6	-9	-4.7	6
18	Mainz	8	1	2	5	-7	+1.7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	9	7	2	0	+13	+3.2	23
2	Bayern Munich	9	7	1	1	+10	+14.9	22
3	Dortmund	10	4	5	1	+10	+0.7	17
4	Hoffenheim	10	5	1	4	+0	-5.5	16
5	RB Leipzig	9	4	1	4	+0	+1.6	13
6	Ein Frankfurt	10	3	4	3	+0	-6.0	13
7	Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	-4	+2.4	12
8	Freiburg	10	3	1	6	-11	-6.8	10
9	Augsburg	9	2	2	5	-8	-4.6	8
10	Wolfsburg	10	2	2	6	-10	-2.7	8
11	M'gladbach	9	1	4	4	-5	-7.3	7
12	Werder Bremen	9	1	3	5	-7	-7.9	6
13	Mainz	10	0	6	4	-9	-3.9	6
14	Heidenheim	10	1	3	6	-10	-13.7	6
15	FC Koln	10	1	3	6	-14	-12.7	6
16	Bochum	10	1	3	6	-20	-15.8	6
17	Darmstadt	9	1	2	6	-16	-16.3	5
18	Union Berlin	9	1	1	7	-11	-6.5	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.